If the predictors can influence the world in addition to making a prediction, they would also have an incentive to change the world in ways that make their predictions more accurate than their opponents right? For example, if everyone else thinks Bob is going to win the presidency, one of the predictors can bribe Bob to drop out and then bet on Alice winning the presidency.
Is there work on this? To be fair, it seems like every AI safety proposal has to deal with something like this.
Yes, if predictors can influence the world in addition to making a prediction, they can go make their predictions more accurate. The nice thing about working with predictive models is that by default the only action they can take is making predictions.
AI safety via market making, which Evan linked in another comment, touches on the analogy where agents are making predictions but can also influence the outcome. You might be interested in reading through it.
Oh that makes sense!
If the predictors can influence the world in addition to making a prediction, they would also have an incentive to change the world in ways that make their predictions more accurate than their opponents right? For example, if everyone else thinks Bob is going to win the presidency, one of the predictors can bribe Bob to drop out and then bet on Alice winning the presidency.
Is there work on this? To be fair, it seems like every AI safety proposal has to deal with something like this.
Yes, if predictors can influence the world in addition to making a prediction, they can go make their predictions more accurate. The nice thing about working with predictive models is that by default the only action they can take is making predictions.
AI safety via market making, which Evan linked in another comment, touches on the analogy where agents are making predictions but can also influence the outcome. You might be interested in reading through it.