I think this is the right way to think of most anti-inductive (planner-adversarial or competitive exploitation) situations. Where there are multiple dimensions of assymetric capabilities, any change is likely to shift the equilibrium, but not necessarily by as much as the shift in component.
That said, tipping points are real, and sometimes a component shift can have a BIGGER effect, because it shifts the search to a new local minimum. In most cases, this is not actully entirely due to that component change, but the discovery and reconfiguration is triggered by it. The rise of mass shootings in the US is an example—there are a lot of causes, but the shift happened quite quickly.
Offense-defense is further confused as an example, because there are at least two different equilibria involved. when you say
The offense-defense balance is a concept that compares how easy it is to protect vs conquer or destroy resources.
Conquer control vs retain control is a different thing than destroy vs preserve. Frank Herbert claimed (via fiction) that “The people who can destroy a thing, they control it.” but it’s actually true in very few cases. The equilibrium of who gets what share of the value from something can shift very separately from the equilibrium of how much total value that thing provides.
I think this is the right way to think of most anti-inductive (planner-adversarial or competitive exploitation) situations. Where there are multiple dimensions of assymetric capabilities, any change is likely to shift the equilibrium, but not necessarily by as much as the shift in component.
That said, tipping points are real, and sometimes a component shift can have a BIGGER effect, because it shifts the search to a new local minimum. In most cases, this is not actully entirely due to that component change, but the discovery and reconfiguration is triggered by it. The rise of mass shootings in the US is an example—there are a lot of causes, but the shift happened quite quickly.
Offense-defense is further confused as an example, because there are at least two different equilibria involved. when you say
Conquer control vs retain control is a different thing than destroy vs preserve. Frank Herbert claimed (via fiction) that “The people who can destroy a thing, they control it.” but it’s actually true in very few cases. The equilibrium of who gets what share of the value from something can shift very separately from the equilibrium of how much total value that thing provides.