Part of Eliezer’s project is to enshrine a definition of ‘rational’ such that a decision that predictably puts you at a disadvantage is not rational.
Assuming that “predictably puts you at a disadvantage” means “there is at least one situation X such that I can predict that if X occurs, I would be at a disadvantage”, then I don’t agree with this definition. (For instance, if Biblical literalism is true, pretty much every rationalist would be at a disadvantage. Does that mean that every definition of “rational” is bad?)
It’s pretty well established here that a phrase like ‘predictably puts you at a disadvantage’ is a probabilistic term; essentially it means ‘has a negative impact on your expected uitility.’
By the definition you assumed I was using, it would be true to say that buying a lottery ticket predictably increases your wealth. That is not a reasonable way to use words.
(Also, you’ve been disagreeing with Eliezer this whole thread, and only that last post has downvotes)
Assuming that “predictably puts you at a disadvantage” means “there is at least one situation X such that I can predict that if X occurs, I would be at a disadvantage”, then I don’t agree with this definition. (For instance, if Biblical literalism is true, pretty much every rationalist would be at a disadvantage. Does that mean that every definition of “rational” is bad?)
It’s pretty well established here that a phrase like ‘predictably puts you at a disadvantage’ is a probabilistic term; essentially it means ‘has a negative impact on your expected uitility.’
By the definition you assumed I was using, it would be true to say that buying a lottery ticket predictably increases your wealth. That is not a reasonable way to use words.
(Also, you’ve been disagreeing with Eliezer this whole thread, and only that last post has downvotes)