Agree that the public stuff has immediate effects that could be costly. (Hiding stuff from the public, refraining from discussing important concerns publicly, or developing a reputation for being kinda secretive/sus can also be costly; seems like an overall complex thing to model IMO.)
Sharing info with government could increase the chance of a leak, especially if security isn’t great. I expect the most relevant info is info that wouldn’t be all-that-costly if leaked (e.g., the government doesn’t need OpenAI to share its secret sauce/algorithmic secrets. Dangerous capability eval results leaking or capability forecasts leaking seem less costly, except from a “maybe people will respond by demanding more govt oversight” POV.
I think all-in-all I still see the main cost as making safety regulation more likely, but I’m more uncertain now, and this doesn’t seem like a particularly important/decision-relevant point. Will edit the OG comment to language that I endorse with more confidence.
TY. Some quick reactions below:
Agree that the public stuff has immediate effects that could be costly. (Hiding stuff from the public, refraining from discussing important concerns publicly, or developing a reputation for being kinda secretive/sus can also be costly; seems like an overall complex thing to model IMO.)
Sharing info with government could increase the chance of a leak, especially if security isn’t great. I expect the most relevant info is info that wouldn’t be all-that-costly if leaked (e.g., the government doesn’t need OpenAI to share its secret sauce/algorithmic secrets. Dangerous capability eval results leaking or capability forecasts leaking seem less costly, except from a “maybe people will respond by demanding more govt oversight” POV.
I think all-in-all I still see the main cost as making safety regulation more likely, but I’m more uncertain now, and this doesn’t seem like a particularly important/decision-relevant point. Will edit the OG comment to language that I endorse with more confidence.