Christianity is a worthy counterexample. But note that in the developed world, it is massively in retreat, i.e. on a level playing field where christianity started today with the same number of initial members as LW has, it would die.
On the other hand something like scientology has actually suceeded in growing from a tiny base, so maybe that’s a stronger counterexample. But note that scientology sells itself a lot on helping people with personal development, i.e. winning. As does christianity to some extent, especially brands of christianity that are actually succeeding in attracting new members.
In conclusion I think that succesful religions actually excel at offering the recruit some short-term gains in winningness. In the case of christianity at least, I think that the gains are permanent for many people.
Thinking about it, it seems that the need for a personal development focussed ideology is obviously very strong. I mean geez, if people need that so badly that they’re prepared to believe utter bullshit in order to get it, then there must be a strong need for it.
(nods slowly) Yeah, you’re right: I can’t think of any “loser-making” ideologies that are growing in popularity compared to prosperity theology.
OK, I stand corrected, at least as applied to the modern world.
One problem, as has been discussed many times, is working out a delivery vehicle for “rationality as a way to get good stuff from the world” that doesn’t have its lunch eaten by “the trappings of rationality as a way to get good stuff from gullible people.”
To solve that problem in the context of personal development, we need short-term gains that swamp the placebo effects that hucksters offer.
Which is a tricky problem, because the placebo effects are actually pretty darned compelling: increasing confidence and subverting people’s self-sabotage techniques really do get a lot of win right off the bat in the areas people normally think of for personal development (getting a raise, a better job, making friends, mood maintenance, weight loss, etc.).
My own instinct would be to start in a market where there isn’t a strong established antirationalist competitor, that isn’t primarily social (thus less readily swamped by the effects of charisma), and that is genuinely difficult (such that a good approach quickly generates noticeably better results than a poor one).
The one that jumps out at me is personal finance. A reliable rational technique for substantially outperforming the market in a 3-6 month timeframe would be a pretty good hook.
“Personal finance” to me has meant “reliable tweaks to optimise current methods of making money”. So, less make money, and more decrease waste of made money.
Not “How to get rich quick”, but “How to be a little richer than you are”
How to make money, how to spend less than you make, how to get the stuff you want for less money, how to make reliable plans for having enough money in the future (e.g., “planning for retirement”).
Hm. That raises an interesting potential point of differentiation, actually.
I’ve seen a lot of “make money” guides that spin themselves as personal development plans… “change your attitude, use these techniques, and you’ll be powerful and successful and popular” and so forth.
Which is unsurprising; this is how one creates followers.
Taking instead the tactic of “Your attitude doesn’t matter. Do these things, and you’ll get positive results. We’re talking about the reality outside your head, here.” might help inhibit subversion by magical thinking.
Christianity is a worthy counterexample. But note that in the developed world, it is massively in retreat, i.e. on a level playing field where christianity started today with the same number of initial members as LW has, it would die.
On the other hand something like scientology has actually suceeded in growing from a tiny base, so maybe that’s a stronger counterexample. But note that scientology sells itself a lot on helping people with personal development, i.e. winning. As does christianity to some extent, especially brands of christianity that are actually succeeding in attracting new members.
In conclusion I think that succesful religions actually excel at offering the recruit some short-term gains in winningness. In the case of christianity at least, I think that the gains are permanent for many people.
Thinking about it, it seems that the need for a personal development focussed ideology is obviously very strong. I mean geez, if people need that so badly that they’re prepared to believe utter bullshit in order to get it, then there must be a strong need for it.
(nods slowly) Yeah, you’re right: I can’t think of any “loser-making” ideologies that are growing in popularity compared to prosperity theology.
OK, I stand corrected, at least as applied to the modern world.
One problem, as has been discussed many times, is working out a delivery vehicle for “rationality as a way to get good stuff from the world” that doesn’t have its lunch eaten by “the trappings of rationality as a way to get good stuff from gullible people.”
To solve that problem in the context of personal development, we need short-term gains that swamp the placebo effects that hucksters offer.
Which is a tricky problem, because the placebo effects are actually pretty darned compelling: increasing confidence and subverting people’s self-sabotage techniques really do get a lot of win right off the bat in the areas people normally think of for personal development (getting a raise, a better job, making friends, mood maintenance, weight loss, etc.).
My own instinct would be to start in a market where there isn’t a strong established antirationalist competitor, that isn’t primarily social (thus less readily swamped by the effects of charisma), and that is genuinely difficult (such that a good approach quickly generates noticeably better results than a poor one).
The one that jumps out at me is personal finance. A reliable rational technique for substantially outperforming the market in a 3-6 month timeframe would be a pretty good hook.
What do you mean by personal finance? You mean how to make money ?
“Personal finance” to me has meant “reliable tweaks to optimise current methods of making money”. So, less make money, and more decrease waste of made money.
Not “How to get rich quick”, but “How to be a little richer than you are”
How to make money, how to spend less than you make, how to get the stuff you want for less money, how to make reliable plans for having enough money in the future (e.g., “planning for retirement”).
Yeah. Sounds like a good first target. Though note link to personal development, which itself links to social dev.
Hm. That raises an interesting potential point of differentiation, actually.
I’ve seen a lot of “make money” guides that spin themselves as personal development plans… “change your attitude, use these techniques, and you’ll be powerful and successful and popular” and so forth.
Which is unsurprising; this is how one creates followers.
Taking instead the tactic of “Your attitude doesn’t matter. Do these things, and you’ll get positive results. We’re talking about the reality outside your head, here.” might help inhibit subversion by magical thinking.