OK, so if the situation is symmetric, why do you believe that disciplined life helps (some) people, but are unwilling to believe that disordered life also helps (some) people?
I’m not unwilling to believe that a disordered life helps some people. I’m saying that, as an individual, each one of us has to be very careful into letting ourselves believe we are one of those people in the absence of strong counter-evidence; because the ( admittedly intuitively assessed on my part ) prior probability of that being the case is not great.
So basically you have a strong prior that disciplined life is considerably more helpful than disorganized one. I assume it’s based on your own experience and the experience of other people in your circle. That’s all fine. What I am doubtful about is how much does that generalize. “Induction” is not a good answer because it’s applicable to absolutely anything.
OK, so if the situation is symmetric, why do you believe that disciplined life helps (some) people, but are unwilling to believe that disordered life also helps (some) people?
I’m not unwilling to believe that a disordered life helps some people. I’m saying that, as an individual, each one of us has to be very careful into letting ourselves believe we are one of those people in the absence of strong counter-evidence; because the ( admittedly intuitively assessed on my part ) prior probability of that being the case is not great.
So basically you have a strong prior that disciplined life is considerably more helpful than disorganized one. I assume it’s based on your own experience and the experience of other people in your circle. That’s all fine. What I am doubtful about is how much does that generalize. “Induction” is not a good answer because it’s applicable to absolutely anything.
A prior probability is generalized by nature.