It is not clear to me that this would result in a lower Kolmogorov complexity at all. Such an algorithm could of course use a pseudo-random number generator for the vast majority quantum events which do not affect p(ASI) (like the creation of CMB photons), but this is orthogonal to someone nudging the relevant quantum events towards ASI. For these relevant events, I am not sure that the description “just do whatever favors ASI” is actually shorter than just the sequence of events.
Hmm, I notice I may have been a bit unclear in my original post. When I’d said “pseudorandom”, I wasn’t referring to the use of a pseudo-random number generator instead of a true RNG. I was referring to the “transcript” of relevant quantum events only appearing random, without being “truly random”, because of the way in which they were generated (which I’m thinking of as being better described as “sampled from a space parameterizing the possible ways the world could be, conditional on humanity building superintelligence” rather than “close to truly random, or generated by a pseudo-random RNG, except with nudges toward ASI”.)
I mean, if we are simulated by a Turing Machine (which is equivalent to quantum events having a low Kolmogorov complexity), then a TM which just implements the true laws of physics (and cheats with a PNRG, not like the inhabitants would ever notice) is surely simpler than one which tries to optimize towards some distant outcome state.
As an analogy, think about the Kolmogorov complexity of a transcript of a very long game of chess. If both opponents are following a simple algorithm of “determine the allowed moves, then use a PRNG to pick one of them”, that should have a bound complexity. If both are chess AIs which want to win the game (i.e. optimize towards a certain state) and use a deterministic PRNG (lest we are incompressible), the size of your Turing Machine—which /is/ the Kolmogorov complexity—just explodes.
Wouldn’t this also serve as an argument against malign consequentialists in the Solomonoff prior, that may make it a priori more likely for us to end up in a world with particular outcomes optimized in their favor?
It is not clear to me that this would result in a lower Kolmogorov complexity at all.
[...]
Look at me rambling about universe-simulating TMs. Enough, enough.
To be clear, it’s also not clear to me that this would result in a lower K-complexity either. My main point is that (1) the null hypothesis of quantum events being independent of consciousness rests on assumptions (like assumptions about what the Solomonoff prior is like) that I think are actually pretty speculative, and that (2) there are speculative ways the Solomonoff prior could be in which our consciousness can influence quantum outcomes.
My goal here is not to make a positive case for consciousness affecting quantum outcomes, as much as it is to question the assumptions behind the case against the world working that way.
Hmm, I notice I may have been a bit unclear in my original post. When I’d said “pseudorandom”, I wasn’t referring to the use of a pseudo-random number generator instead of a true RNG. I was referring to the “transcript” of relevant quantum events only appearing random, without being “truly random”, because of the way in which they were generated (which I’m thinking of as being better described as “sampled from a space parameterizing the possible ways the world could be, conditional on humanity building superintelligence” rather than “close to truly random, or generated by a pseudo-random RNG, except with nudges toward ASI”.)
Wouldn’t this also serve as an argument against malign consequentialists in the Solomonoff prior, that may make it a priori more likely for us to end up in a world with particular outcomes optimized in their favor?
To be clear, it’s also not clear to me that this would result in a lower K-complexity either. My main point is that (1) the null hypothesis of quantum events being independent of consciousness rests on assumptions (like assumptions about what the Solomonoff prior is like) that I think are actually pretty speculative, and that (2) there are speculative ways the Solomonoff prior could be in which our consciousness can influence quantum outcomes.
My goal here is not to make a positive case for consciousness affecting quantum outcomes, as much as it is to question the assumptions behind the case against the world working that way.