It seems to me that winning the leverage lottery (by being at the dawn of an intergalactic civilization) is not like flipping a few hundred coins and getting a random bitstring that was not generated in that fashion, anywhere else in our Hubble volume. It is like flipping a few hundred coins and getting nothing but heads.
Yeah, exactly. The issue is not so much the 10^-80 prior, as the 10^-80 prior on obtaining it randomly vs much much larger prior of obtaining it because, say, you can’t visually discriminate between the coin sides.
Yeah, exactly. The issue is not so much the 10^-80 prior, as the 10^-80 prior on obtaining it randomly vs much much larger prior of obtaining it because, say, you can’t visually discriminate between the coin sides.