I’d counter with the theory that there’s been a marked shift in why people are testing. If you’re mostly testing for the purpose of controlling the spread (e.g. contact tracing) then the CFR will be lower than if you’re focused on treating people who are acutely ill (with the goal of getting antivirals ASAP)
I do broadly agree with you that there are perverse incentives for people to avoid going on record as having Covid, especially with what we’re finding out about possible long term cardiovascular issues (if you ever want to buy life insurance, don’t get a PCR test). That could have the effect you’re describing.
Right. There’s definitely some sort of bias in the testing.
One area in which I’ve run out of patience is the “Home tests are keeping case counts down” trope. In order for that to be true, you need to make a lot of assumptions about what those home-testers would be doing if there weren’t any home tests available. Would they be running out to get PCR tests? Somehow I doubt it.
I’d counter with the theory that there’s been a marked shift in why people are testing. If you’re mostly testing for the purpose of controlling the spread (e.g. contact tracing) then the CFR will be lower than if you’re focused on treating people who are acutely ill (with the goal of getting antivirals ASAP)
I do broadly agree with you that there are perverse incentives for people to avoid going on record as having Covid, especially with what we’re finding out about possible long term cardiovascular issues (if you ever want to buy life insurance, don’t get a PCR test). That could have the effect you’re describing.
Right. There’s definitely some sort of bias in the testing.
One area in which I’ve run out of patience is the “Home tests are keeping case counts down” trope. In order for that to be true, you need to make a lot of assumptions about what those home-testers would be doing if there weren’t any home tests available. Would they be running out to get PCR tests? Somehow I doubt it.