Note that lack of ability to know what alignment work would be useful to do ahead of time increases, rather than decreases, the absolute level of risk; thus, it increases rather than decreases the risk metrics (e.g. probability of humans being wiped out) that FHI estimated.
It could still be that the level of absolute risk is still low, even after taking this into account. I concede that estimating risks like these are very difficult.
Note that lack of ability to know what alignment work would be useful to do ahead of time increases, rather than decreases, the absolute level of risk; thus, it increases rather than decreases the risk metrics (e.g. probability of humans being wiped out) that FHI estimated.
It could still be that the level of absolute risk is still low, even after taking this into account. I concede that estimating risks like these are very difficult.