Yes, although I did this research ~3 years ago as an undergrad, filed it away, and I’m not sure if it meets my current epistemic/bayesian standards; I didn’t read any books or documentaries, I just read the tons of Wikipedia articles and noted that the circumstances of these deaths stood out. The three generals who died under suspicious circumstances are:
James Forrestal, first Secretary of Defense (but with strong ties to the Navy during its decline), ousted and died by suicide at a military psychiatric hospital during the Revolt of the Admirals at age 57 in May 1949. This is what drew my attention to military figures during the period.
George Patton, the top general of the US occupation forces in Germany, opposed Eisenhower’s denazification policy of senior government officials due to concerns that it would destabilize the German government (which he correctly predicted would become West Germany and oppose the nearby Soviet forces). Ousted and died in a car accident less than 6 months later, in December 1945.
Hoyt Vandenberg, Chief of staff of the Air Force, retired immediately after opposing Air Force budget cuts in 1953 when the Air Force was becoming an independent branch from the Army and a key part of the nuclear arsenal. Died 9 months later from cancer at age 55 on April 1954.
At the time (2020), it didn’t occur to me to look into base rates (the Revolt of the Admirals and interservice conflict over nukes were clearly NOT base rates though). I also thought at the time that this was helpful to understand the modern US military, but I was wrong; WW2 was started with intent to kill, they thought diplomacy would inevitably fail for WW3 just like the last 2 world wars did, and they would carpet bomb Russia with nukes, like Berlin and Toyko were carpet bombed with conventional bombs.
Modern military norms very clearly have intent to maneuver around deterrence rather than intent to conquer, in large part because game theory wasn’t discovered until the 50s. Governments and militaries are now OOD in plenty of other major ways as well.
Can you name the generals you mean so that it’s easier to follow your claim?
Yes, although I did this research ~3 years ago as an undergrad, filed it away, and I’m not sure if it meets my current epistemic/bayesian standards; I didn’t read any books or documentaries, I just read the tons of Wikipedia articles and noted that the circumstances of these deaths stood out. The three generals who died under suspicious circumstances are:
James Forrestal, first Secretary of Defense (but with strong ties to the Navy during its decline), ousted and died by suicide at a military psychiatric hospital during the Revolt of the Admirals at age 57 in May 1949. This is what drew my attention to military figures during the period.
George Patton, the top general of the US occupation forces in Germany, opposed Eisenhower’s denazification policy of senior government officials due to concerns that it would destabilize the German government (which he correctly predicted would become West Germany and oppose the nearby Soviet forces). Ousted and died in a car accident less than 6 months later, in December 1945.
Hoyt Vandenberg, Chief of staff of the Air Force, retired immediately after opposing Air Force budget cuts in 1953 when the Air Force was becoming an independent branch from the Army and a key part of the nuclear arsenal. Died 9 months later from cancer at age 55 on April 1954.
At the time (2020), it didn’t occur to me to look into base rates (the Revolt of the Admirals and interservice conflict over nukes were clearly NOT base rates though). I also thought at the time that this was helpful to understand the modern US military, but I was wrong; WW2 was started with intent to kill, they thought diplomacy would inevitably fail for WW3 just like the last 2 world wars did, and they would carpet bomb Russia with nukes, like Berlin and Toyko were carpet bombed with conventional bombs.
Modern military norms very clearly have intent to maneuver around deterrence rather than intent to conquer, in large part because game theory wasn’t discovered until the 50s. Governments and militaries are now OOD in plenty of other major ways as well.