Pascal’s wager: If you don’t do what God says, you will go to Hell where you will be in a lot of pain until the end of time. Now, maybe God is not real, but can you really take that chance? Doing what God says isn’t even that much work.
Pascal’s mugging: I tell you “if you don’t do what I say, something very bad will happen to you.” Very bad things are probably lies, but you can’t be sure. And when they get a lot worse, they only sound a little bit more like lies. So whatever I asked you to do, I can always make up a story so bad that it’s safer to give in.
Pascal’s wager: If you don’t do what God says, you will go to Hell where you will be in a lot of pain until the end of time. Now, maybe God is not real, but can you really take that chance? Doing what God says isn’t even that much work.
Pascal’s mugging: I tell you “if you don’t do what I say, something very bad will happen to you.” Very bad things are probably lies, but you can’t be sure. And when they get a lot worse, they only sound a little bit more like lies. So whatever I asked you to do, I can always make up a story so bad that it’s safer to give in.
(With slightly more fidelity to Mr. Pascal’s formulation:)
You have nothing to lose.
You have much to get. God can give you a lot.
There might be no God. But a chance to get something is better than no chance at all.
So go for it.
Nitpicking:
You have little to lose. (For example, you waste your Sunday mornings. That’s not nothing.)