India’s situation is messy because of the different states policies.
To properly do this one would need to control for incidence and lockdown policy state-by-state. Also some states have no approval for Ivermectin yet it gets used.
My best bet is that we’ll get the cleaner data on whether it works from Europe, in particular from Slovakia and Czechia.
Even if EMA advises against Ivermectin, Slovakia approved it for both prophylaxis and treatment in late January 2021.
I could not find how widespread the slovak usage of Ivermectin is, but there are few points:
Mobility report shows that Slovakia is not locking down, not effectively at least
Bratislava airport has arrivals from all places (including UK), seemingly no closed borders
Less than <40% of Slovakia population is vaccinated (vs >65% in UK, 47% in CZ)
Cases in Slovakia keep going down, but Czechia seems to start going up
I’ve not found data on the delta variant incidence in Slovakia, maybe it didn’t reach there yet. It’s 98% of cases in UK, 30% in CZ.
If Slovakia sees a ramp up in delta cases the Ivermectin proponents will likely say it wasn’t used enough/correctly, and the detractors will keep saying it was useless from the start.
On the other hand, if Slovakia does not see a ramp up in delta cases whilst keeping a low vaccination rate and no effective lockdown in place it’d suggest something else must be at work.
Saying it’s Ivermectin will come off as reasoning from exclusion but it’d be my best-bet hypothesis.
India’s situation is messy because of the different states policies.
To properly do this one would need to control for incidence and lockdown policy state-by-state. Also some states have no approval for Ivermectin yet it gets used.
My best bet is that we’ll get the cleaner data on whether it works from Europe, in particular from Slovakia and Czechia.
Even if EMA advises against Ivermectin, Slovakia approved it for both prophylaxis and treatment in late January 2021.
I could not find how widespread the slovak usage of Ivermectin is, but there are few points:
Mobility report shows that Slovakia is not locking down, not effectively at least
Bratislava airport has arrivals from all places (including UK), seemingly no closed borders
Less than <40% of Slovakia population is vaccinated (vs >65% in UK, 47% in CZ)
Cases in Slovakia keep going down, but Czechia seems to start going up
I’ve not found data on the delta variant incidence in Slovakia, maybe it didn’t reach there yet. It’s 98% of cases in UK, 30% in CZ.
If Slovakia sees a ramp up in delta cases the Ivermectin proponents will likely say it wasn’t used enough/correctly, and the detractors will keep saying it was useless from the start.
On the other hand, if Slovakia does not see a ramp up in delta cases whilst keeping a low vaccination rate and no effective lockdown in place it’d suggest something else must be at work.
Saying it’s Ivermectin will come off as reasoning from exclusion but it’d be my best-bet hypothesis.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1245971/number-delta-variant-worldwide-by-country/ has data as of two days ago and shows 6 cases of delta for Slovakia.
Nice find. There’s more data at GISAID, and it’s quite comprehensive!