Seems like we mostly agree and our difference is based on timelines. I agree the effect is more of a long term one, although I wouldn’t say decades. OpenAI was founded in 2015 and raised the profile of AI risk in 2022, so in the counterfactual case where Sam Altman was dissuaded from founding OpenAI due to timeline concerns, AI risk would have much lower public credibility less than a decade.
Public recognition as a researcher does seem to favour longer periods of time though, the biggest names are all people who’ve been in the field multiple decades, so you have a point there.
Seems like we mostly agree and our difference is based on timelines. I agree the effect is more of a long term one, although I wouldn’t say decades. OpenAI was founded in 2015 and raised the profile of AI risk in 2022, so in the counterfactual case where Sam Altman was dissuaded from founding OpenAI due to timeline concerns, AI risk would have much lower public credibility less than a decade.
Public recognition as a researcher does seem to favour longer periods of time though, the biggest names are all people who’ve been in the field multiple decades, so you have a point there.