An easy to use app which allows people to negotiate contracts in a transparently fair way, by using an LDT solution to the Ultimatum Game (probably the proposed solution in that link is good-enough, despite being unlikely to be fully-optimal).
Part of the problem here is not just the implementation, but of making it credible to people who don’t/can’t understand the math. I tried to solve a similar problem with my website bayescalc.io where a large part of the goal was not just making use of Bayes’ theorem accessible, but to make it credible by visually showing what it’s doing as much as possible in an easy to understand way (not sure how well I succeeded, unfortunately).
Another important factor is that ease-of-use and a frictionless design. I believe Manifold Markets has succeeded because this turns out to be more important than even having proper financial incentives.
An easy to use app which allows people to negotiate contracts in a transparently fair way, by using an LDT solution to the Ultimatum Game (probably the proposed solution in that link is good-enough, despite being unlikely to be fully-optimal)
Writing up the contracts (especially around all the caveats that they might not have noticed) seems like it would be harder than just reading contracts (I’m an exception, I write faster than I read). Have you thought of integrating GPT/Claude as assistants? I don’t know about current tech, but like many other technologies, that integration will scale well in the contingency scenario where publicly available LLMs keep advancing.
Part of the problem here is not just the implementation, but of making it credible to people who don’t/can’t understand the math. I tried to solve a similar problem with my website bayescalc.io where a large part of the goal was not just making use of Bayes’ theorem accessible, but to make it credible by visually showing what it’s doing as much as possible in an easy to understand way (not sure how well I succeeded, unfortunately).
I think this can be done with a website, but not the current one. Have you tried reading yudkowsky’s projectlawful? The main character’s math lessons gave me the impression of something that actually succeeds at demonstrating, to business school types (maybe not politicians), why math and bayesianism is something that works for them.
Another important factor is that ease-of-use and a frictionless design. I believe Manifold Markets has succeeded because this turns out to be more important than even having proper financial incentives.
This is a really interesting thing, it’s not just about making each button intuitive, it’s about making the whole enchilada intuitive for a wide variety of neurotypes. Now that I think about it, manifold really was a feat of engineering here, although I don’t know how well it would work for people who, unlike me, don’t know what getting ahead of markets is like. But generally, it’s just a lot of optimization power, and it’s probably way more time-effective to reach out to them and ask them how they did it (e.g. what books they read) than to try to find ease-of-use resources (e.g. books) with google search.
Writing up the contracts (especially around all the caveats that they might not have noticed) seems like it would be harder than just reading contracts (I’m an exception, I write faster than I read). Have you thought of integrating GPT/Claude as assistants? I don’t know about current tech, but like many other technologies, that integration will scale well in the contingency scenario where publicly available LLMs keep advancing.
I’d consider the success of Manifold Markets over Metaculus to be mild evidence against this.
And to be clear, I do not currently intend to build the idea I’m suggesting here myself (could potentially be persuaded, but I’d be much happier to see someone else with better design and marketing skills make it).
I think this can be done with a website, but not the current one. Have you tried reading yudkowsky’s projectlawful? The main character’s math lessons gave me the impression of something that actually succeeds at demonstrating, to business school types (maybe not politicians), why math and bayesianism is something that works for them.
Heh, that scene was the direct inspiration for my website. I’m curious what specific things you think can be done better.
Potential piece of a coordination takeoff:
An easy to use app which allows people to negotiate contracts in a transparently fair way, by using an LDT solution to the Ultimatum Game (probably the proposed solution in that link is good-enough, despite being unlikely to be fully-optimal).
Part of the problem here is not just the implementation, but of making it credible to people who don’t/can’t understand the math. I tried to solve a similar problem with my website bayescalc.io where a large part of the goal was not just making use of Bayes’ theorem accessible, but to make it credible by visually showing what it’s doing as much as possible in an easy to understand way (not sure how well I succeeded, unfortunately).
Another important factor is that ease-of-use and a frictionless design. I believe Manifold Markets has succeeded because this turns out to be more important than even having proper financial incentives.
Writing up the contracts (especially around all the caveats that they might not have noticed) seems like it would be harder than just reading contracts (I’m an exception, I write faster than I read). Have you thought of integrating GPT/Claude as assistants? I don’t know about current tech, but like many other technologies, that integration will scale well in the contingency scenario where publicly available LLMs keep advancing.
I think this can be done with a website, but not the current one. Have you tried reading yudkowsky’s projectlawful? The main character’s math lessons gave me the impression of something that actually succeeds at demonstrating, to business school types (maybe not politicians), why math and bayesianism is something that works for them.
This is a really interesting thing, it’s not just about making each button intuitive, it’s about making the whole enchilada intuitive for a wide variety of neurotypes. Now that I think about it, manifold really was a feat of engineering here, although I don’t know how well it would work for people who, unlike me, don’t know what getting ahead of markets is like. But generally, it’s just a lot of optimization power, and it’s probably way more time-effective to reach out to them and ask them how they did it (e.g. what books they read) than to try to find ease-of-use resources (e.g. books) with google search.
I’d consider the success of Manifold Markets over Metaculus to be mild evidence against this.
And to be clear, I do not currently intend to build the idea I’m suggesting here myself (could potentially be persuaded, but I’d be much happier to see someone else with better design and marketing skills make it).
Heh, that scene was the direct inspiration for my website. I’m curious what specific things you think can be done better.