Writing up the contracts (especially around all the caveats that they might not have noticed) seems like it would be harder than just reading contracts (I’m an exception, I write faster than I read). Have you thought of integrating GPT/Claude as assistants? I don’t know about current tech, but like many other technologies, that integration will scale well in the contingency scenario where publicly available LLMs keep advancing.
I’d consider the success of Manifold Markets over Metaculus to be mild evidence against this.
And to be clear, I do not currently intend to build the idea I’m suggesting here myself (could potentially be persuaded, but I’d be much happier to see someone else with better design and marketing skills make it).
I think this can be done with a website, but not the current one. Have you tried reading yudkowsky’s projectlawful? The main character’s math lessons gave me the impression of something that actually succeeds at demonstrating, to business school types (maybe not politicians), why math and bayesianism is something that works for them.
Heh, that scene was the direct inspiration for my website. I’m curious what specific things you think can be done better.
I’d consider the success of Manifold Markets over Metaculus to be mild evidence against this.
And to be clear, I do not currently intend to build the idea I’m suggesting here myself (could potentially be persuaded, but I’d be much happier to see someone else with better design and marketing skills make it).
Heh, that scene was the direct inspiration for my website. I’m curious what specific things you think can be done better.