So my mind state is more likely in a five-sibling world than a six-sibling one, but using it as anthropic evidence would just be double-counting whatever evidence left me with that mind state in the first place.
Yep; in which case the anthropic evidence isn’t doing any useful explanatory work, and the thesis ‘Anthropics doesn’t explain X’ holds.
Anthropics fails to explain King George because it’s double-counting the evidence. The same does not apply to any extinction event, where you have not already conditioned on “I wouldn’t exist otherwise.”
If it’s a non-extinction nuclear exchange, where population would be significantly smaller but nonzero, I’m not confident enough in my understanding of anthropics to have an opinion.
Yep; in which case the anthropic evidence isn’t doing any useful explanatory work, and the thesis ‘Anthropics doesn’t explain X’ holds.
Anthropics fails to explain King George because it’s double-counting the evidence. The same does not apply to any extinction event, where you have not already conditioned on “I wouldn’t exist otherwise.”
If it’s a non-extinction nuclear exchange, where population would be significantly smaller but nonzero, I’m not confident enough in my understanding of anthropics to have an opinion.