In the LessWrong dojo we did forcasts over the years in different ways.
On mode that was working decently was people setting goals to be achieved next week and stating their likelihood that they achieve the goals. People could bet against each other and we used a previously on LW published formula for calculating who should get how much as the bet resolves.
In the LessWrong dojo we did forcasts over the years in different ways.
On mode that was working decently was people setting goals to be achieved next week and stating their likelihood that they achieve the goals. People could bet against each other and we used a previously on LW published formula for calculating who should get how much as the bet resolves.
SquirrelInHell (who isn’t alive anymore) wrote an Android App to track personal predictions (https://squirrelinhell.blogspot.com/2017/01/prediction-calibration-doing-it-right.html).
I don’t think the skill is generally neglected. It’s just that the efforts to train it didn’t produce big utility.