This comment should probably be here. My main rationality-related effort at the moment is working on calibrated predictions—learning as much as I can and starting to teach others. I’ve been reading Nate Silver’s “The Signal and the Noise”—now on chapter 11 of 13, and while it has its moments I can’t say I’m bowled over with it.
I’ve just shot up to the top of the rankings in my GJP team. Though I started Year 2 of the GJP somewhat disappointed (owing in part to several bugs in the interface, and lack of participation from some team members) I’m now happier to have played along. I feel like I’ve learned a few things about making good forecasts, and it’s been quite instructive to witness biases in myself and others.
Nate Silver’s book has an intriguing description of poker as rationality training, so I’ve been playing a little Texas Hold’Em against the computer to get a feel for the game and might revisit Rational Poker at some point—OTOH I’m concerned that the game might prove overly addictive for me, and it seems too much of a hassle to try making any money from it.
I’m considering matched betting instead, if I can figure out whether it’s possible to play from my country. One thing Silver eloquently describes is how there is a “performance waterline” in many competitive activities, such that depending on where the waterline currently lies it can be very easy to outperform most players with a bare minimum of training. Economic circumstances have forced the waterline way up in poker, but it still seems to be fairly low in e.g. betting arbitrage and some prediction markets.
This comment should probably be here. My main rationality-related effort at the moment is working on calibrated predictions—learning as much as I can and starting to teach others. I’ve been reading Nate Silver’s “The Signal and the Noise”—now on chapter 11 of 13, and while it has its moments I can’t say I’m bowled over with it.
I’ve just shot up to the top of the rankings in my GJP team. Though I started Year 2 of the GJP somewhat disappointed (owing in part to several bugs in the interface, and lack of participation from some team members) I’m now happier to have played along. I feel like I’ve learned a few things about making good forecasts, and it’s been quite instructive to witness biases in myself and others.
Nate Silver’s book has an intriguing description of poker as rationality training, so I’ve been playing a little Texas Hold’Em against the computer to get a feel for the game and might revisit Rational Poker at some point—OTOH I’m concerned that the game might prove overly addictive for me, and it seems too much of a hassle to try making any money from it.
I’m considering matched betting instead, if I can figure out whether it’s possible to play from my country. One thing Silver eloquently describes is how there is a “performance waterline” in many competitive activities, such that depending on where the waterline currently lies it can be very easy to outperform most players with a bare minimum of training. Economic circumstances have forced the waterline way up in poker, but it still seems to be fairly low in e.g. betting arbitrage and some prediction markets.