Glad to hear you’re planning to write up a post covering stuff like this! I personally think it’s quite overdue, especially on a site like this which I suspect has an inherent selection effect on people who take ideas quite seriously like me. I don’t quite understand the last part of your reply though, I understand the importance of measure in decision making but like I said in my post, I thought if the blackmailer makes a significant number of simulations then indexical uncertainty could still be established since it could still have a significant effect on your future observer moments. Did I make a mistake anywhere in my reasoning?
My suggestion is to first make sure that your reasoning is sane. Free from sub-conscious effects leaking into it. Leaking-in meaning worrying interpretations being more salient or less rigorous reasoning in areas where feelings play a role.
Glad to hear you’re planning to write up a post covering stuff like this! I personally think it’s quite overdue, especially on a site like this which I suspect has an inherent selection effect on people who take ideas quite seriously like me. I don’t quite understand the last part of your reply though, I understand the importance of measure in decision making but like I said in my post, I thought if the blackmailer makes a significant number of simulations then indexical uncertainty could still be established since it could still have a significant effect on your future observer moments. Did I make a mistake anywhere in my reasoning?
My suggestion is to first make sure that your reasoning is sane. Free from sub-conscious effects leaking into it. Leaking-in meaning worrying interpretations being more salient or less rigorous reasoning in areas where feelings play a role.
See The Treacherous Path to Rationality for some more aspects. You should be on stable footing before you approach the monsters.