It is true that superinteligences are much more difficult to model, and therefore predict and give them a reason to actually carry out threats is low, but its not like its easy all of a sudden to say that “ah, aliens or humans arent as complex, therefore i should take them seriously.” Its virtually impossible to know with any real accuracy what aliens are going to do, because we know nothing about them, and even humans, are diverse and complicated in their own right, so good luck trying to predict or even pretend to know what they are going to think or do without any real evidance.
I think I basically agree, though I am pretty uncertain. You’d basically have to simulate not just the other being, but also the other being simulating you, with a certain fidelity. In my post I posed the scenario where the other being is watching you through an ASI simulation, and so it is much more computationally easier for them to simulate you in their head, but this means you have to simulate what the other being is thinking as well as what it is seeing. Simply modelling the being as thinking “I will torture him for X years if he doesn’t do action Y” is an oversimplification since you also have to expand out the “him” as “a simulation of you” in very high detail.
Therefore, I think it is still extremely computation-intensive for us to simulate the being simulating us.
This reply i think is correct, but let me add something: the number of possible ways you can simulate a being is immense; and wich one should you choose? You have no idea and no evidence to judge from. And even when you are taking an action, how would you know if its the right one? So why even engage, there are also many other entities that might exist that dont even do acausal trade and might still do something to you. It seems to be the case that the best way of action is to just ignore these cases, cuz if you forget about them they will conclude that youre impenetrable, and so no reason to follow up on anything.
It is true that superinteligences are much more difficult to model, and therefore predict and give them a reason to actually carry out threats is low, but its not like its easy all of a sudden to say that “ah, aliens or humans arent as complex, therefore i should take them seriously.” Its virtually impossible to know with any real accuracy what aliens are going to do, because we know nothing about them, and even humans, are diverse and complicated in their own right, so good luck trying to predict or even pretend to know what they are going to think or do without any real evidance.
I think I basically agree, though I am pretty uncertain. You’d basically have to simulate not just the other being, but also the other being simulating you, with a certain fidelity. In my post I posed the scenario where the other being is watching you through an ASI simulation, and so it is much more computationally easier for them to simulate you in their head, but this means you have to simulate what the other being is thinking as well as what it is seeing. Simply modelling the being as thinking “I will torture him for X years if he doesn’t do action Y” is an oversimplification since you also have to expand out the “him” as “a simulation of you” in very high detail.
Therefore, I think it is still extremely computation-intensive for us to simulate the being simulating us.
This reply i think is correct, but let me add something: the number of possible ways you can simulate a being is immense; and wich one should you choose? You have no idea and no evidence to judge from. And even when you are taking an action, how would you know if its the right one? So why even engage, there are also many other entities that might exist that dont even do acausal trade and might still do something to you. It seems to be the case that the best way of action is to just ignore these cases, cuz if you forget about them they will conclude that youre impenetrable, and so no reason to follow up on anything.
Tldr: just cuz its “easyer”, doesnt mean its real.