Tetlock’s foxes vs. hedgehogs (people without strong ideologies are somewhat better predictors than those who have strong ideologies, though still not very good predictors) suggests that a hunt for consistency in for something as complex as politics leads to an excessively high risk of ignoring evidence.
Hedgehogs might have premises about how to learn more than about specific outcomes.
Tetlock’s foxes vs. hedgehogs (people without strong ideologies are somewhat better predictors than those who have strong ideologies, though still not very good predictors) suggests that a hunt for consistency in for something as complex as politics leads to an excessively high risk of ignoring evidence.
Hedgehogs might have premises about how to learn more than about specific outcomes.