I don’t think we’re actually disagreeing much about outcomes (which I agree have been great!), or even that Australia has competently executed at least enough of the important things to get right. Of the five items you mention I’d include borders, quarantine, snap-lockdowns, and testing as part of the local elimination policy; we haven’t done them perfectly but we have done them well enough.
I understand “using good epistemics to make decisions” to require that your decisions should be made based on a coherent understanding and cost-benefit analysis of the situation, even if both might change over time. “Merely” getting good outcomes doesn’t count!
For example, we still encourage pointless handwashing and distancing while iffy on masks or ventilation—and because we got to zero transmission in other ways, that’s OK. Similarly, it’s true that Australia’s slow vaccine rollout hasn’t cost many lives so far and I hope that neither winter nor variants change that. The cost-in-expectation of an unlikely outbreak should still drive faster vaccination efforts IMO, especially when e.g. increasing local production is not zero-sum.
I don’t think we’re actually disagreeing much about outcomes (which I agree have been great!), or even that Australia has competently executed at least enough of the important things to get right. Of the five items you mention I’d include borders, quarantine, snap-lockdowns, and testing as part of the local elimination policy; we haven’t done them perfectly but we have done them well enough.
I understand “using good epistemics to make decisions” to require that your decisions should be made based on a coherent understanding and cost-benefit analysis of the situation, even if both might change over time. “Merely” getting good outcomes doesn’t count!
For example, we still encourage pointless handwashing and distancing while iffy on masks or ventilation—and because we got to zero transmission in other ways, that’s OK. Similarly, it’s true that Australia’s slow vaccine rollout hasn’t cost many lives so far and I hope that neither winter nor variants change that. The cost-in-expectation of an unlikely outbreak should still drive faster vaccination efforts IMO, especially when e.g. increasing local production is not zero-sum.