The big issue for the MNM effect isn’t that it won’t exist or not cause a strong response, but rather the issue that plagues pause-type policies will apply 100-fold to the MNM effect:
The issue is that algorithmic advances could make the policy quite useless fast, and in the MNM effect, there will plausibly be only 1 or 2 OOMs left to superintelligent AI through primarily scaling.
People have debated on LW about the value of algorithmic advances and whether they are necessary for AGI and ASI, but the debate is a bit irrelevant for pause/ban purposes, because there definitely have been useful algorithmic progress before, and under a pause scenario, there will be a lot of incentives to get more use out of algorithmic progress like AI search, so I consider the policies generated by the MNM effect to only last several years at most, and also we will almost certainly have super-persuasive AIs that blunt the strength of any laws passed on AI, so I don’t expect the MNM effect to be helpful at all, and plausibly see it as a very harmful effect for AI safety.
The big issue for the MNM effect isn’t that it won’t exist or not cause a strong response, but rather the issue that plagues pause-type policies will apply 100-fold to the MNM effect:
The issue is that algorithmic advances could make the policy quite useless fast, and in the MNM effect, there will plausibly be only 1 or 2 OOMs left to superintelligent AI through primarily scaling.
People have debated on LW about the value of algorithmic advances and whether they are necessary for AGI and ASI, but the debate is a bit irrelevant for pause/ban purposes, because there definitely have been useful algorithmic progress before, and under a pause scenario, there will be a lot of incentives to get more use out of algorithmic progress like AI search, so I consider the policies generated by the MNM effect to only last several years at most, and also we will almost certainly have super-persuasive AIs that blunt the strength of any laws passed on AI, so I don’t expect the MNM effect to be helpful at all, and plausibly see it as a very harmful effect for AI safety.
Link below:
https://yellow-apartment-148.notion.site/AI-Search-The-Bitter-er-Lesson-44c11acd27294f4495c3de778cd09c8d