I put the word “probability” in quotes is because I wanted to talk about the word itself, not the type of logic it refers to. The reason I thought you were talking about different types of logic using the same word was because probability already specifies what you’re supposed to be maximizing. For individual probabilities it could be one of many scoring rules, but if you want to add scores together you need to use the log scoring rule.
To the naive reader, both of these things sound like “The probability that the coin comes up tails”.
Right. One of them is the probability that the coin comes up tails given some starting information (as in a conditional probability, like P(T | S)), and the other is the probability that the coin comes up tails, given the starting information and some anthropic information: P(T | S A). So they’re both “P(T),” in a way.
Hah, so I think in your original comment you meant “asking “but what’s P(T), really?” isn’t helpful,” but I heard “asking “but what’s P(T | S A), really?” isn’t helpful” (in my defense, some people have actually said this).
If this is right I’ll edit it into my original reply so that people can be less confused. Lastly, in light of this there is only one thing I can link to.
Ah, okay, that makes sense to me now. Thanks.
I put the word “probability” in quotes is because I wanted to talk about the word itself, not the type of logic it refers to. The reason I thought you were talking about different types of logic using the same word was because probability already specifies what you’re supposed to be maximizing. For individual probabilities it could be one of many scoring rules, but if you want to add scores together you need to use the log scoring rule.
Right. One of them is the probability that the coin comes up tails given some starting information (as in a conditional probability, like P(T | S)), and the other is the probability that the coin comes up tails, given the starting information and some anthropic information: P(T | S A). So they’re both “P(T),” in a way.
Hah, so I think in your original comment you meant “asking “but what’s P(T), really?” isn’t helpful,” but I heard “asking “but what’s P(T | S A), really?” isn’t helpful” (in my defense, some people have actually said this).
If this is right I’ll edit it into my original reply so that people can be less confused. Lastly, in light of this there is only one thing I can link to.