P(mad scientist created no valid clones) = 0.99 as given in problem description, P(me being the original | no clones exist) = 1, therefore P(me being the original & no clones exist) = 0.99.
P(mad scientist created 10000 clones) = 0.01, P(me being the original | 10000 clones) ~= 0.00009999. Therefore P(me being the original & 10000 clones exist) ~= 0.0000009999.
P(me being the original) = P(me being the original & no clones exist) + P(me being the original & 10000 clones exist) ~= 0.9900009999 as these are disjoint exhaustive events.
You just stated Self-Sampling Assumption’s calculation.
Given you said “The most likely way I could find to arrive at a “close to 0″ number was to make an error that I have seen a few times in the context of students calculating probabilities, but not previously in self-locating probabilities.” about Self-Indication Assumption’s method.
Are you endorsing SSA over SIA? Or you are just listing the different camps in anthropic paradoxes?
No, I just forgot about the exact statement of Bostrom’s original SIA. It doesn’t apply in this case anyway, since it’s only applied other things being equal, and here they aren’t equal.
One possible derivation:
P(mad scientist created no valid clones) = 0.99 as given in problem description, P(me being the original | no clones exist) = 1, therefore P(me being the original & no clones exist) = 0.99.
P(mad scientist created 10000 clones) = 0.01, P(me being the original | 10000 clones) ~= 0.00009999. Therefore P(me being the original & 10000 clones exist) ~= 0.0000009999.
P(me being the original) = P(me being the original & no clones exist) + P(me being the original & 10000 clones exist) ~= 0.9900009999 as these are disjoint exhaustive events.
0.9900009999 is not “close to 0”.
You just stated Self-Sampling Assumption’s calculation.
Given you said “The most likely way I could find to arrive at a “close to 0″ number was to make an error that I have seen a few times in the context of students calculating probabilities, but not previously in self-locating probabilities.” about Self-Indication Assumption’s method.
Are you endorsing SSA over SIA? Or you are just listing the different camps in anthropic paradoxes?
No, I just forgot about the exact statement of Bostrom’s original SIA. It doesn’t apply in this case anyway, since it’s only applied other things being equal, and here they aren’t equal.