Nuclear exchanges won’t end the world, but they will make the nations that started them forever irrelevant. If the top 100 major cities in the U.S. were wiped out, the U.S. would become the next Roman Empire for all sakes and purposes, an echo of the past. That represents an immense loss in GDP and a complete destruction of the economy.
Also you can’t have it both ways,
Either a nuclear exchange is deadly and a reason to abide a treaty (and suicidal enough that leaders won’t actually do it) or it’s not and people won’t abide by it.
The first claim is true—but ruling a third world nation is still better than being dead and ruling nothing. If the leadership has Eliezer-level conviction that AI would kill everybody, then the choice is clear.
The second isn’t—destroying the ability to build AI is much easier, so the reason for abiding the treaty is not “we all die” but rather “we become much poorer and don’t get the AI anyway”.
Nuclear exchanges won’t end the world, but they will make the nations that started them forever irrelevant. If the top 100 major cities in the U.S. were wiped out, the U.S. would become the next Roman Empire for all sakes and purposes, an echo of the past. That represents an immense loss in GDP and a complete destruction of the economy.
Also you can’t have it both ways,
Either a nuclear exchange is deadly and a reason to abide a treaty (and suicidal enough that leaders won’t actually do it) or it’s not and people won’t abide by it.
The first claim is true—but ruling a third world nation is still better than being dead and ruling nothing. If the leadership has Eliezer-level conviction that AI would kill everybody, then the choice is clear. The second isn’t—destroying the ability to build AI is much easier, so the reason for abiding the treaty is not “we all die” but rather “we become much poorer and don’t get the AI anyway”.