1-2-3-4-5-6 is a Schelling point for overt tampering with a lottery. That makes it considerably more likely to be reported as the outcome to a lottery, even if it’s not more likely to be the outcome of a stochastic method of selecting numbers.
After seeing quite a few examples, I’ve recently become very sensitive to comparisons of an abstract idea of something with an objective something, as if they were on equal footing. Your question explicitly says the Pope conversion is a legitimate non-shenanigans event, while not making the same claim of the lottery result. Was that intentional?
After seeing quite a few examples, I’ve recently become very sensitive to comparisons of an abstract idea of something with an objective something, as if they were on equal footing. Your question explicitly says the Pope conversion is a legitimate non-shenanigans event, while not making the same claim of the lottery result. Was that intentional?
No, I just didn’t think of it. (Assume that I meant that, if someone happens to have bought a 1-2-3-4-5-6 ticket, they would indeed be able to claim the top prize.)
You said that the Pope was definitely not joking, (or replaced by a prankster in a pope suit), but left it open as to whether the lottery result was actually a legitimate sequence of numbers drawn randomly from a lottery machine, or somehow engineered to happen.
In that sense, you’re comparing a very definite unlikely event (the Pope actually converting to Islam) to a nominally unlikely event (1-2-3-4-5-6 coming up as the lottery results, for some reason that may or may not be a legitimate random draw). Was that intentional?
No, but if someone successfully manages to rig the lottery to come up 1-2-3-4-5-6, and doesn’t get caught, I’d count that as an instance. Similarly, if the reason the Pope issued the public statement was that his brother was being held hostage or something, and he recants after he’s rescued, that’s good enough, too; I just wanted to rule out things like April Fools jokes, or off-the-cuff sarcastic remarks.
1-2-3-4-5-6 is a Schelling point for overt tampering with a lottery.
I don’t think that’s true. If you were going to tamper with the lottery, isn’t your most likely motive that you want to win it? Why, then, set it up in such a way that you have to share the prize with the thousands of other people who play those numbers?
I specified “overt tampering” rather than “covert tampering”. If you wanted to choose a result that would draw suspicion, 1-2-3-4-5-6 strikes me as the most obvious candidate.
1-2-3-4-5-6 is a Schelling point for overt tampering with a lottery. That makes it considerably more likely to be reported as the outcome to a lottery, even if it’s not more likely to be the outcome of a stochastic method of selecting numbers.
After seeing quite a few examples, I’ve recently become very sensitive to comparisons of an abstract idea of something with an objective something, as if they were on equal footing. Your question explicitly says the Pope conversion is a legitimate non-shenanigans event, while not making the same claim of the lottery result. Was that intentional?
No, I just didn’t think of it. (Assume that I meant that, if someone happens to have bought a 1-2-3-4-5-6 ticket, they would indeed be able to claim the top prize.)
I might not have worded that very clearly.
You said that the Pope was definitely not joking, (or replaced by a prankster in a pope suit), but left it open as to whether the lottery result was actually a legitimate sequence of numbers drawn randomly from a lottery machine, or somehow engineered to happen.
In that sense, you’re comparing a very definite unlikely event (the Pope actually converting to Islam) to a nominally unlikely event (1-2-3-4-5-6 coming up as the lottery results, for some reason that may or may not be a legitimate random draw). Was that intentional?
No, but if someone successfully manages to rig the lottery to come up 1-2-3-4-5-6, and doesn’t get caught, I’d count that as an instance. Similarly, if the reason the Pope issued the public statement was that his brother was being held hostage or something, and he recants after he’s rescued, that’s good enough, too; I just wanted to rule out things like April Fools jokes, or off-the-cuff sarcastic remarks.
I don’t think that’s true. If you were going to tamper with the lottery, isn’t your most likely motive that you want to win it? Why, then, set it up in such a way that you have to share the prize with the thousands of other people who play those numbers?
I specified “overt tampering” rather than “covert tampering”. If you wanted to choose a result that would draw suspicion, 1-2-3-4-5-6 strikes me as the most obvious candidate.
Why would anyone want to do that? (I’m sure that any reason for that would be much more likely than 1 in 175 million, but still I can’t think of it.)
The three most obvious answers (to my mind) are:
1) to demonstrate your Big Angelic Powers
2) to discredit the lottery organisers
3) as a prank / because you can