I had the impression that it was more than just that
Yes, the post was about more than that. To the extent I was arguing against a single line of work, it was mainly intended as a critique of public advocacy. Separately, I asked people to re-evaluate which problems will be solved by default, to refocus our efforts on the most neglected, important problems, and went into detail about what I currently expect will be solved by default.
If you have any you think faithfully represent a possible disagreement between us go ahead.
I offered a concrete prediction in the post. If people don’t think my prediction operationalizes any disagreement, then I think (1) either they don’t disagree with me, in which case maybe the post isn’t really aimed at them, or (2) they disagree with me in some other way that I can’t predict, and I’d prefer they explain where they disagree exactly.
a big issue with the market you’ve made is that it is about what will happen in the world, not what will happen without intervention from AI x-risk people.
It seems relatively valueless to predict on what will happen without intervention, since AI x-risk people will almost certainly intervene.
Furthermore it has all the usual issues with forecasting on complex things 12 years in advance, regarding the extent to which it operationalizes any disagreement well (I’ve bet yes on it, but think it’s likely that evaluating and fixing deceptive alignment will remain mostly unsolved in 2035, especially if there were no intervention from x-risk people).
I mostly agree. But I think it’s still better to offer a precise prediction than to only offer vague predictions, which I perceive as the more common and more serious failure mode in discussions like this one.
Yes, the post was about more than that. To the extent I was arguing against a single line of work, it was mainly intended as a critique of public advocacy. Separately, I asked people to re-evaluate which problems will be solved by default, to refocus our efforts on the most neglected, important problems, and went into detail about what I currently expect will be solved by default.
I offered a concrete prediction in the post. If people don’t think my prediction operationalizes any disagreement, then I think (1) either they don’t disagree with me, in which case maybe the post isn’t really aimed at them, or (2) they disagree with me in some other way that I can’t predict, and I’d prefer they explain where they disagree exactly.
It seems relatively valueless to predict on what will happen without intervention, since AI x-risk people will almost certainly intervene.
I mostly agree. But I think it’s still better to offer a precise prediction than to only offer vague predictions, which I perceive as the more common and more serious failure mode in discussions like this one.