Toby, ignoring donations to SIAI and possibly FHI I’m still very skeptical of your claims. GiveWell have done analysis strongly indicating that the cheapest lives to save actually cost between $1K and $2K, but one would have to search for a long time to find them GiveWell and much longer to do GiveWell’s analysis yourself. Evaluating GiveWell is intermediate and most people lack the cognitive abilities to do that.
Furthermore, the lives in question are fairly low value compared to our own lives. I don’t have any qualms in saying that if purely selfish I’d unhesitatingly play 5 full chamber Russian Roulette rather than being economically, physically, and mentally reduced to the conditions of a typical Tuberculosis victim regardless of what happiness researchers may say about them. Note that I have lived in the 3rd world and have known such people so it’s not just distance that makes me say that. I have some feel for the odds against snake eyes and with more hesitation I’d go for that too. In any event I have more feel for that then I do for what giving up essentially all my human capital would mean from the inside.
Anyway, based on the numbers I just gave, saving a quality of life comparable to my own would cost more like $50K. Would I spend $50K to save my life? Hell yes. To avoid a 1% chance of death? Maybe. Lets try that again like a behavioral economist. To reduce my chance of death in the next 10 years by half? Not so sure. I’m a 31 year old male so ignoring other considerations that would constitute a 1% risk of death. http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html Other considerations probably halve it already so make it 15 years and it’s still borderline. Though inclined to consider it somewhat for altruistic reasons, I don’t pay for cryonics, which is pretty much pure selfish survival along the above lines and which would be considerably cheaper. This leads me to conclude that I would have to be over 1% altruistic to spend on third world aid, not .01% as you suggest.
Toby, ignoring donations to SIAI and possibly FHI I’m still very skeptical of your claims. GiveWell have done analysis strongly indicating that the cheapest lives to save actually cost between $1K and $2K, but one would have to search for a long time to find them GiveWell and much longer to do GiveWell’s analysis yourself. Evaluating GiveWell is intermediate and most people lack the cognitive abilities to do that.
Furthermore, the lives in question are fairly low value compared to our own lives. I don’t have any qualms in saying that if purely selfish I’d unhesitatingly play 5 full chamber Russian Roulette rather than being economically, physically, and mentally reduced to the conditions of a typical Tuberculosis victim regardless of what happiness researchers may say about them. Note that I have lived in the 3rd world and have known such people so it’s not just distance that makes me say that.
I have some feel for the odds against snake eyes and with more hesitation I’d go for that too. In any event I have more feel for that then I do for what giving up essentially all my human capital would mean from the inside.
Anyway, based on the numbers I just gave, saving a quality of life comparable to my own would cost more like $50K. Would I spend $50K to save my life? Hell yes. To avoid a 1% chance of death? Maybe. Lets try that again like a behavioral economist. To reduce my chance of death in the next 10 years by half? Not so sure. I’m a 31 year old male so ignoring other considerations that would constitute a 1% risk of death. http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html Other considerations probably halve it already so make it 15 years and it’s still borderline. Though inclined to consider it somewhat for altruistic reasons, I don’t pay for cryonics, which is pretty much pure selfish survival along the above lines and which would be considerably cheaper. This leads me to conclude that I would have to be over 1% altruistic to spend on third world aid, not .01% as you suggest.