Educate me, LW hive mind. Robin Hanson has mentioned that prediction markets can give not just probability assessments on discrete sets of outcomes but also probability distributions over such assessments that let us know how (un)certain the market is concerning a particular assessment (or at least, that’s how I interpreted his words). Does anyone have links to descriptions of such methods?
Educate me, LW hive mind. Robin Hanson has mentioned that prediction markets can give not just probability assessments on discrete sets of outcomes but also probability distributions over such assessments that let us know how (un)certain the market is concerning a particular assessment (or at least, that’s how I interpreted his words). Does anyone have links to descriptions of such methods?
The key phrase is “scoring rules.” Another phrase is “combinatorial prediction markets,” but I think that’s something else.