Type-2 worlds have a 10% chance of being destroyed, not a 90% chance. So P(post cold war | type 2) = 90 / 190.
If your main point is that the action is in the prior (rather than the update) and you don’t dispute people’s posteriors, then I think that’s something to flag clearly.
My point is that the difference between SSA and SIA is in the prior. I dispute anthropic shadow posteriors since both SSA and SIA posteriors overwhelmingly believe type 2, but anthropic shadow arguers say you can’t update towards type 2 using the evidence of being post cold war at all.
Type-2 worlds have a 10% chance of being destroyed, not a 90% chance. So P(post cold war | type 2) = 90 / 190.
My point is that the difference between SSA and SIA is in the prior. I dispute anthropic shadow posteriors since both SSA and SIA posteriors overwhelmingly believe type 2, but anthropic shadow arguers say you can’t update towards type 2 using the evidence of being post cold war at all.