That’s exactly right. It would be much better know a simple method of how to distinguish overconfidence from being actually right without a lot of work. In the absence of that, maybe tables like this can help people choose more epistemic humility.
That’s exactly right. It would be much better know a simple method of how to distinguish overconfidence from being actually right without a lot of work. In the absence of that, maybe tables like this can help people choose more epistemic humility.