Do you think that in this particular case it’s worth drawing the difference between “making an estimate” and “making a market bet on the basis of an estimate”?
Only weakly. The probability of, eg, nuclear war, is not sufficiently low to qualify as Pascal Mugging, and investors do regularly consider things of <1% probability.
Only weakly. The probability of, eg, nuclear war, is not sufficiently low to qualify as Pascal Mugging, and investors do regularly consider things of <1% probability.