If human values are not coherent, is that not a problem for any plans we might have for the future, rather than just CEV?
It is a problem if your particular values require you to drag all of humanity along with you into whatever glorious future you perceive. If that is your value, to drag all of whatever you decide qualifies as human with you on your journey, then you will probably be defeated by groups who are not limited by that value. And the absolute mass of human history shows groups of humans who are more than happy to build a future only for their in-group, with significantly less regard if not total lack of regard for the interests of all the humans not in the in-group.
Certainly we have seen the size of in-groups rise through human history. And many of us have extrapolated from this that the in-group is heading towards all humanity, and then made the illogical leap (or succumbed to the sentiment) that therefore the in-group SHOULD be all of humanity. But at the same time, plenty of us, even those in groups measured in the 100s of millions, are still happy to support the in-group specially, to deport people who were not born in the US but happened to group up there since childhood, to pass laws giving all the good jobs and government benefits to citizens, to place it as a positive value to value the income of a lazy alcoholic in Ohio over the income of a peasant in Mexico or China who might work three times as hard for a tenth as much to support his family.
One would imagine from the success and power of nations numbering in the 100s of millions that widening the definition of “us” has made humans more productive, made the larger-grouped humans more fit in an evolutionary sense. But just as an elephant’s size advantages do not lead to elephants as large as mountains, there is evidence that making the ingroup much larger than a billion, at this point in our evolution and technical expertise, does NOT provide an advantage over groups of 100s of millions.
I would expect the future to belong to groups numbered in the 100s of millions, perhaps leading towards a few billion as technology improves, that are happy to prioritize themselves much higher than the outgroup, that do not waste energy and resources on a bunch of humans who are not with the program and who are going to be more effort than they are worth trying to get with the program, or even worse are working against it.
It is a problem if your particular values require you to drag all of humanity along with you into whatever glorious future you perceive. If that is your value, to drag all of whatever you decide qualifies as human with you on your journey, then you will probably be defeated by groups who are not limited by that value. And the absolute mass of human history shows groups of humans who are more than happy to build a future only for their in-group, with significantly less regard if not total lack of regard for the interests of all the humans not in the in-group.
Certainly we have seen the size of in-groups rise through human history. And many of us have extrapolated from this that the in-group is heading towards all humanity, and then made the illogical leap (or succumbed to the sentiment) that therefore the in-group SHOULD be all of humanity. But at the same time, plenty of us, even those in groups measured in the 100s of millions, are still happy to support the in-group specially, to deport people who were not born in the US but happened to group up there since childhood, to pass laws giving all the good jobs and government benefits to citizens, to place it as a positive value to value the income of a lazy alcoholic in Ohio over the income of a peasant in Mexico or China who might work three times as hard for a tenth as much to support his family.
One would imagine from the success and power of nations numbering in the 100s of millions that widening the definition of “us” has made humans more productive, made the larger-grouped humans more fit in an evolutionary sense. But just as an elephant’s size advantages do not lead to elephants as large as mountains, there is evidence that making the ingroup much larger than a billion, at this point in our evolution and technical expertise, does NOT provide an advantage over groups of 100s of millions.
I would expect the future to belong to groups numbered in the 100s of millions, perhaps leading towards a few billion as technology improves, that are happy to prioritize themselves much higher than the outgroup, that do not waste energy and resources on a bunch of humans who are not with the program and who are going to be more effort than they are worth trying to get with the program, or even worse are working against it.