I’ve read “Anthropic Shadow” a few times now. I don’t think I will write a post on it. It does a pretty good job of explaining itself, and I couldn’t think of any uses for it.
The Shadow only biases estimates when some narrow conditions are met:
your estimate has to be based strictly on your past
of a random event
the events have to be very destructive to observers like yourself
and also rare to begin with
So it basically only applies to global existential risks, and there aren’t that many of them. Nor can we apply it to interesting examples like the Singularity, because that’s not a random event but dependent on our development.
I’ve read “Anthropic Shadow” a few times now. I don’t think I will write a post on it. It does a pretty good job of explaining itself, and I couldn’t think of any uses for it.
The Shadow only biases estimates when some narrow conditions are met:
your estimate has to be based strictly on your past
of a random event
the events have to be very destructive to observers like yourself
and also rare to begin with
So it basically only applies to global existential risks, and there aren’t that many of them. Nor can we apply it to interesting examples like the Singularity, because that’s not a random event but dependent on our development.