The part to feel guilty about is that I chose not to explain that the salesman is probably either lying, or insane, or both, and therefore probably shouldn’t be considered “a trusted friend”. And also that I chose to just try to avoid both of these people, rather than… thinking of a less blatantly unfriendly solution.
I disagree with your analysis, but the details of why I disagree would be spoilers.
But I can only make inferences on what you’ve told me. If there’s a factor that throws off the general inferences you can make from a salesman’s clientele, you can’t fault me for not using it. It’s like you’re trying to say:
“This dude was born in the US. He’s 50 years old. Can he speak English?” → Yeah, probably. → “Haha! No, he can’t! I didn’t tell you he was abducted to Cambodia as an infant and grew up there!”
Anyway, the next step is to estimate what fraction of salesman with the same clientele composition have not had their clients die and see how atypical he is. Plus, his sales record would have to start from early in his career, or else his clients fall mostly within recent sales, a time span in which people normally don’t die anyway.
I disagree with your analysis, but the details of why I disagree would be spoilers.
more details:
no, he’s not deliberately selecting low-risk clients. He’s trying to make as many sales as possible.
and he’s had lots of clients. I don’t know the actual numbers, but he has won awards for how many policies he has sold.
and he seems to honestly believe that there’s something special about him that makes his clients not die. he’s “one of those people”.
and here’s the first actuarial life table I found through a quick google search: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html
I’m going to go ahead and post the spoiler, rot13′d
Zl thrff: Ur’f ylvat. Naq ur’f cebonoyl ylvat gb uvzfrys nf jryy, va beqre sbe gur yvr gb or zber pbaivapvat. Gung vf, qryvorengryl sbetrggvat nobhg gur pyvragf jub unir qvrq.
Vs ur unf unq a pyvragf, naq vs gurve nirentr ntr vf 30… Rnpu lrne, gur cebonovyvgl bs rnpu bs gurz fheivivat gur arkg lrne vf, jryy, yrg’f ebhaq hc gb 99%. Gung zrnaf gung gur cebonovyvgl bs nyy bs gurz fheivivat vf 0.99^a. Rira vs ur unf bayl unq 100 pyvragf, gura gur cebonovyvgl bs gurz nyy fheivivat bar lrne vf 0.99^100=0.36 Vs ur unq 200 pyvragf, gura gur cebonovyvgl bs gurz nyy fheivivat bar lrne vf 0.99^200=0.13. Naq gung’f whfg sbe bar lrne. Gur sbezhyn tbrf rkcbaragvny ntnva vs lbh pbafvqre nyy 20 lrnef. Gur cebonovyvgl bs nyy 100 pyvragf fheivivat 20 lrnef vf 0.99^100^20=1.86R-9
Naq zl npghny erfcbafr vf… qba’g ohl gur yvsr vafhenapr. Ohg qba’g gryy nalbar gung lbh guvax ur’f ylvat. (hayrff lbh pbhag guvf cbfg.) Nyfb, gur sevraq ab ybatre pbhagf nf “gehfgrq”, be ng yrnfg abg gehfgrq gb or engvbany. Bu, naq srry ernyyl thvygl sbe abg svaqvat n orggre fbyhgvba, naq cbfg gb YJ gb frr vs nalbar guvaxf bs n orggre vqrn. Ohg qba’g cbfg rabhtu vasbezngvba sbe nalbar gb npghnyyl guvax bs n orggre fbyhgvba. Naq vs fbzrbar qbrf guvax bs n orggre vqrn naljnl, vtaber vg vs vg’f gbb fpnel.
I don’t understand what you mean by a better solution; I wouldn’t feel guilty about doing what you did.
The part to feel guilty about is that I chose not to explain that the salesman is probably either lying, or insane, or both, and therefore probably shouldn’t be considered “a trusted friend”. And also that I chose to just try to avoid both of these people, rather than… thinking of a less blatantly unfriendly solution.
But I can only make inferences on what you’ve told me. If there’s a factor that throws off the general inferences you can make from a salesman’s clientele, you can’t fault me for not using it. It’s like you’re trying to say:
“This dude was born in the US. He’s 50 years old. Can he speak English?” → Yeah, probably. → “Haha! No, he can’t! I didn’t tell you he was abducted to Cambodia as an infant and grew up there!”
Anyway, the next step is to estimate what fraction of salesman with the same clientele composition have not had their clients die and see how atypical he is. Plus, his sales record would have to start from early in his career, or else his clients fall mostly within recent sales, a time span in which people normally don’t die anyway.
I thought I provided enough information, but I apologise if I didn’t.
I posted an rot13′d version of my answer, which also explains why I disagreed with your answer.
sorry if the rot13ing is pointlessly annoying.