The difficulty of creating an AGI drops slightly every time computational power increases. We know that people greatly underestimated the difficulty of creating AGI in the past, but we don’t know how fast the difficulty is decreasing, how difficult it is now, whether it will ever stop decreasing, or where.
I agree that those rates are hard to determine. I am also weary of “AI FOOM is a certainty” type statements, and appeals to the nebulous “powers that all computers inherently have”.
The difficulty of creating an AGI drops slightly every time computational power increases. We know that people greatly underestimated the difficulty of creating AGI in the past, but we don’t know how fast the difficulty is decreasing, how difficult it is now, whether it will ever stop decreasing, or where.
I agree that those rates are hard to determine. I am also weary of “AI FOOM is a certainty” type statements, and appeals to the nebulous “powers that all computers inherently have”.