By using Solomonoff Induction on all possible universes, and updating on the existing chapters. :D
Or it could simply say that it understands human psychology well (we are speaking about a superhuman AI), and understands all clues in the existing chapters, and can copy Eliezer’s writing style… so while it cannot print an identical copy of Eliezer’s planned ending, with a high probability it can write an ending that ends the story logically in a way compatible with Eliezer’s thinking, that would feel like if Elizer wrote it.
Oh, and where did it get the original HPMoR chapters? From the (imaginary) previous gatekeeper.
1) You don’t get to assume “because superhuman!” the AI can know X, for any X. EY is an immensely complex human being, and no machine learning algorithm can simply digest a realistically finite sample of his written work and know with any certainty how he thinks or what surprises he has planned. It would be able to, e.g. finish sentences correctly and do other tricks, and given a range of possible endings predict which ones are likely. But this shouldn’t be too surprising: it’s a trick we humans are able to do too. The AI’s predictions may be more accurate, but not qualitatively different than any of the many HPMOR prediction threads.
2) Ok maybe—maybe! -- in principle, in theory it might be possible for a perfect, non-heuristic Bayesian with omniscient access to the inner lives and external writings of every other human being in existence would have a data set large enough data set to make reliable enough extrapolations from as low-bandwidth a medium as EY’s published fanfics. Maybe, as this is not a logical consequence. Even so, we’re talking about a boxed AI, remember? If it is everywhere and omniscient, then it’s already out of the box.
Why would the AI know that?
By using Solomonoff Induction on all possible universes, and updating on the existing chapters. :D
Or it could simply say that it understands human psychology well (we are speaking about a superhuman AI), and understands all clues in the existing chapters, and can copy Eliezer’s writing style… so while it cannot print an identical copy of Eliezer’s planned ending, with a high probability it can write an ending that ends the story logically in a way compatible with Eliezer’s thinking, that would feel like if Elizer wrote it.
Oh, and where did it get the original HPMoR chapters? From the (imaginary) previous gatekeeper.
So, two issues:
1) You don’t get to assume “because superhuman!” the AI can know X, for any X. EY is an immensely complex human being, and no machine learning algorithm can simply digest a realistically finite sample of his written work and know with any certainty how he thinks or what surprises he has planned. It would be able to, e.g. finish sentences correctly and do other tricks, and given a range of possible endings predict which ones are likely. But this shouldn’t be too surprising: it’s a trick we humans are able to do too. The AI’s predictions may be more accurate, but not qualitatively different than any of the many HPMOR prediction threads.
2) Ok maybe—maybe! -- in principle, in theory it might be possible for a perfect, non-heuristic Bayesian with omniscient access to the inner lives and external writings of every other human being in existence would have a data set large enough data set to make reliable enough extrapolations from as low-bandwidth a medium as EY’s published fanfics. Maybe, as this is not a logical consequence. Even so, we’re talking about a boxed AI, remember? If it is everywhere and omniscient, then it’s already out of the box.
I’m happy to assume the AI is omniscient, just impotent. I think such an AI could still be boxed.