The whole point of using a model is to explain and predict without the sometimes prohibitive costs of not modelling, but it comes at the price of losing “resolution of reality”. That loss is what leads to uncertainty. Understanding enough about the immune system to know how current vaccines operate in the body and how risks add up differently in different bodies (ecosystems, really) could take several generations of dedicated research… we’ve collectively been at it since before Pasteur, keep making amazing discoveries, and still can’t provide really good answers. So I feel you will only get half-baked guesses in this forum and slightly better ones if you ask COVID experts.
The whole point of using a model is to explain and predict without the sometimes prohibitive costs of not modelling, but it comes at the price of losing “resolution of reality”. That loss is what leads to uncertainty. Understanding enough about the immune system to know how current vaccines operate in the body and how risks add up differently in different bodies (ecosystems, really) could take several generations of dedicated research… we’ve collectively been at it since before Pasteur, keep making amazing discoveries, and still can’t provide really good answers. So I feel you will only get half-baked guesses in this forum and slightly better ones if you ask COVID experts.