An interesting note on colonizing mars: Right now, we could send an unmanned mission to plant 20kT nukes under dust flows near the frozen CO2 poles. Detonation would cover the CO2 with dark dust and cause it to start subliming, setting off a chain reaction of global warming on Mars. This process is simple and cheap to start, but also inherently slow (takes decades), and it might not actually work. Once the planet has warmed up (this would take until 2020 if we started the process now, I think), algae would be able to live on the planet, converting CO2 into O2, leading to habitability.
Admittedly, the returns per dollar on this project are not as good as the best projects we do (to start with, the sheer cost of such a space mission would be a minimum of $100,000,000). But they are amenable to a much larger funding base, and have far more advocates, infrastructure, etc, so if the opportunity arises to provide positive publicity for such proposals, we should do it.
Also, compare a set of missions to warm mars up and seed it with algae at a cost of perhaps $ 5 billion to the iraq/afghan wars at $ 3000 billion.
See This article by Zubrin for more such ideas, including mirrors and super-greenhouse gasses, which seem to be an order of magnitude more expensive but more reliable.
Note that developments in robotics and synthetic biology make everything more viable.
Looking for citations makes me doubt whether the nuke idea actually works. JoshuaZ cites the place I found the idea. Zubrin’s detailed paper (cited above) may partially explain why: only if the feedback coefficient is optimistically high would such an intervention work. Still, there are other methods that come with an order-of-magnitude higher price tag, such as super-greenhouse gasses. Also, we don’t yet know how favorable the feedback coefficient is.
However, Zubrin does propose a 125km-radius mirror to melt the ice caps, and dust would make such a project much more efficient. Building a 10,000 ton reflector in space is no mean feat, though.
I still claim that we could terraform mars for less than a tenth of the cost of Iraq/Afghanistan, if the money was actually used sanely (which is itself doubtful)
This article doesn’t cite everything that Roko says but seems like an ok citation for the general idea of using nukes to cover the poles with dust. I don’t know how much of a reliable source that is. I am under the impression that Zubrin in his book the Case for Mars suggests various methods for covering the poles with dust but doesn’t discuss using nukes. Given Zubrin’s general approach and the extensive nature of the book, this would suggest to me that Zubrin doesn’t take the idea seriously (and he’s clearly thought about Mars colonization more than anyone almost else). However, the book is old enough at this point that if this is a new idea he may just not have been aware of it at that time.
An interesting note on colonizing mars: Right now, we could send an unmanned mission to plant 20kT nukes under dust flows near the frozen CO2 poles. Detonation would cover the CO2 with dark dust and cause it to start subliming, setting off a chain reaction of global warming on Mars. This process is simple and cheap to start, but also inherently slow (takes decades), and it might not actually work. Once the planet has warmed up (this would take until 2020 if we started the process now, I think), algae would be able to live on the planet, converting CO2 into O2, leading to habitability.
Admittedly, the returns per dollar on this project are not as good as the best projects we do (to start with, the sheer cost of such a space mission would be a minimum of $100,000,000). But they are amenable to a much larger funding base, and have far more advocates, infrastructure, etc, so if the opportunity arises to provide positive publicity for such proposals, we should do it.
Also, compare a set of missions to warm mars up and seed it with algae at a cost of perhaps $ 5 billion to the iraq/afghan wars at $ 3000 billion.
See This article by Zubrin for more such ideas, including mirrors and super-greenhouse gasses, which seem to be an order of magnitude more expensive but more reliable.
Note that developments in robotics and synthetic biology make everything more viable.
Citations needed.
Looking for citations makes me doubt whether the nuke idea actually works. JoshuaZ cites the place I found the idea. Zubrin’s detailed paper (cited above) may partially explain why: only if the feedback coefficient is optimistically high would such an intervention work. Still, there are other methods that come with an order-of-magnitude higher price tag, such as super-greenhouse gasses. Also, we don’t yet know how favorable the feedback coefficient is.
However, Zubrin does propose a 125km-radius mirror to melt the ice caps, and dust would make such a project much more efficient. Building a 10,000 ton reflector in space is no mean feat, though.
I still claim that we could terraform mars for less than a tenth of the cost of Iraq/Afghanistan, if the money was actually used sanely (which is itself doubtful)
This article doesn’t cite everything that Roko says but seems like an ok citation for the general idea of using nukes to cover the poles with dust. I don’t know how much of a reliable source that is. I am under the impression that Zubrin in his book the Case for Mars suggests various methods for covering the poles with dust but doesn’t discuss using nukes. Given Zubrin’s general approach and the extensive nature of the book, this would suggest to me that Zubrin doesn’t take the idea seriously (and he’s clearly thought about Mars colonization more than anyone almost else). However, the book is old enough at this point that if this is a new idea he may just not have been aware of it at that time.
If Zubrin didn’t mention nukes, it may have been for PR reasons.