By the time it’s done, with however much effort one can realistically expect, only a small fraction of remaining non-uFAI risk will remain unrealized, and Earth-based shelters could be made more resilient in the meantime, faster and cheaper.
So, this claim depends upon two subclaims.
(1) The probability distribution of time-to-colony
(2) The probability distribution of time-to-non-AI-risk
Can you post your probability distributions for these two events in separate comments, so that I can agree or disagree with each separately?
So, this claim depends upon two subclaims.
(1) The probability distribution of time-to-colony (2) The probability distribution of time-to-non-AI-risk
Can you post your probability distributions for these two events in separate comments, so that I can agree or disagree with each separately?