The problem is what is “correct thinking”? Is “correct” telling people to never try? Is “correct” sticking to safe, sure bets always? Is correct giving up on something because the challenge will be great and the odds long? What kind of world would we live in if everyone took that mentality? I would argue that ambition is powerful, it shapes this world and builds monumental things. Its irrational to expect people to be completely rational, that can only result in depression, stagnation and death. This all does remind me of a story with an important message.
Long ago in the Arizona desert, there once was a scout for the garrison at Fort Huachuca. During this man’s spare time he ranged off into the desert searching for veins of silver or gold. The land was wild back then and very dangerous. When this young man’s friend learned what he was doing this friend told him “The only rock you will find out there is your own tombstone.” Undeterred he continued searching and eventually found a vein of silver all the while with only thirty cents in his pockets. He eventually staked the claim, got the ore appraised and founded the settlement “Tombstone” in honor of what everyone told him he would find. Edward Lawrence Schieffelin would became a millionaire due to his discovery in the late 1870′s.
Were the odds actually in favor of Ed only finding his grave in that desert? Yes. Did most people setting out west fail in whatever ambitions they had? Yes. Does that mean it was not worth trying? No, it does not. The fact is that the vast majority of those setting out west to settle the land would fail utterly in some respect. That doesn’t mean they should have stayed home and never dreamed at all. Where would we be if everyone had said “You know what? I think I’ll just play it safe. ?
It’s a fair point that many important changes in our world were caused by people who took big risks. But I have a hard time believing that it was the best way to achieve these changes. If a million people stayed home instead of taking a one-in-a-million chance each, who knows how much good they could do at home? Probably more than one lucky person could achieve. And if some risky actions genuinely lead to collective benefit, then in a saner world some people would still take these risks, because others would invest in them appropriately.
That’s all speculative, though, because we don’t live in such a world. Here and now, the purpose of my post is to benefit the person reading it, not set them up for almost certain failure because it might benefit others. I think that’s the right attitude when giving advice.
The problem is that you cannot be quite absolutely certain that someone will in fact fail. You can express any likelihood of them amounting to anything other than “normal” or “average” is frighteningly small, but that’s not quite the same as an absolute fact that they will not succeed ever, nor does any of this mean that the effort to reach their goal on some level wouldn’t make them happy even if they never succeed. The effort to reach that goal also can be also very socially and economically productive.
I think the better advice is “Dream of victory, but prepare for defeat.” The idea is that if they are truly passionate about something they should push towards it but prepare themselves to fail again and again. That means that they shouldn’t just abandon all family and stable work for said goals, but instead maintain those in preparation for the likely event that they fail in each attempt. This is important because no one goes through life without taking a blow so to speak. Everyone spends some of their time taking their own share of lumps and preparing for this instead of living in a fantasy world in which nothing can go wrong is important.
I suppose its a fundamental disagreement of basic philosophy here. You are arguing the Buddhist and Epicurean thought “Unhappiness is caused by unnecessary desire.” Whereas my observation and platform is based upon the idea that “True depression is stillness born from a lack of worthwhile purpose and objectives in life.” Its the recognition that for some people at least (such as myself) they need fantastic goals and overriding purpose in life to be happy, even if the chance of success is quite low.
I think we have a misunderstanding. My post didn’t argue against all big ambitions, see the part about positive-sum games.
Also, even if it’s good to try risky things, that doesn’t mean it’s good to be biased about your chances. The post pointed out specific biases, like survivorship bias or sunk cost fallacy, that lead people to take more risks than they would choose to take if they saw things clearly.
The problem is what is “correct thinking”? Is “correct” telling people to never try? Is “correct” sticking to safe, sure bets always? Is correct giving up on something because the challenge will be great and the odds long? What kind of world would we live in if everyone took that mentality? I would argue that ambition is powerful, it shapes this world and builds monumental things. Its irrational to expect people to be completely rational, that can only result in depression, stagnation and death. This all does remind me of a story with an important message.
Long ago in the Arizona desert, there once was a scout for the garrison at Fort Huachuca. During this man’s spare time he ranged off into the desert searching for veins of silver or gold. The land was wild back then and very dangerous. When this young man’s friend learned what he was doing this friend told him “The only rock you will find out there is your own tombstone.” Undeterred he continued searching and eventually found a vein of silver all the while with only thirty cents in his pockets. He eventually staked the claim, got the ore appraised and founded the settlement “Tombstone” in honor of what everyone told him he would find. Edward Lawrence Schieffelin would became a millionaire due to his discovery in the late 1870′s.
Were the odds actually in favor of Ed only finding his grave in that desert? Yes. Did most people setting out west fail in whatever ambitions they had? Yes. Does that mean it was not worth trying? No, it does not. The fact is that the vast majority of those setting out west to settle the land would fail utterly in some respect. That doesn’t mean they should have stayed home and never dreamed at all. Where would we be if everyone had said “You know what? I think I’ll just play it safe. ?
It’s a fair point that many important changes in our world were caused by people who took big risks. But I have a hard time believing that it was the best way to achieve these changes. If a million people stayed home instead of taking a one-in-a-million chance each, who knows how much good they could do at home? Probably more than one lucky person could achieve. And if some risky actions genuinely lead to collective benefit, then in a saner world some people would still take these risks, because others would invest in them appropriately.
That’s all speculative, though, because we don’t live in such a world. Here and now, the purpose of my post is to benefit the person reading it, not set them up for almost certain failure because it might benefit others. I think that’s the right attitude when giving advice.
The problem is that you cannot be quite absolutely certain that someone will in fact fail. You can express any likelihood of them amounting to anything other than “normal” or “average” is frighteningly small, but that’s not quite the same as an absolute fact that they will not succeed ever, nor does any of this mean that the effort to reach their goal on some level wouldn’t make them happy even if they never succeed. The effort to reach that goal also can be also very socially and economically productive.
I think the better advice is “Dream of victory, but prepare for defeat.” The idea is that if they are truly passionate about something they should push towards it but prepare themselves to fail again and again. That means that they shouldn’t just abandon all family and stable work for said goals, but instead maintain those in preparation for the likely event that they fail in each attempt. This is important because no one goes through life without taking a blow so to speak. Everyone spends some of their time taking their own share of lumps and preparing for this instead of living in a fantasy world in which nothing can go wrong is important.
I suppose its a fundamental disagreement of basic philosophy here. You are arguing the Buddhist and Epicurean thought “Unhappiness is caused by unnecessary desire.” Whereas my observation and platform is based upon the idea that “True depression is stillness born from a lack of worthwhile purpose and objectives in life.” Its the recognition that for some people at least (such as myself) they need fantastic goals and overriding purpose in life to be happy, even if the chance of success is quite low.
I think we have a misunderstanding. My post didn’t argue against all big ambitions, see the part about positive-sum games.
Also, even if it’s good to try risky things, that doesn’t mean it’s good to be biased about your chances. The post pointed out specific biases, like survivorship bias or sunk cost fallacy, that lead people to take more risks than they would choose to take if they saw things clearly.