large, liquid, free prediction markets being made suddenly available to the public
I am going to be pessimistic and guess that very little would change because this scenario does not include any change to the type of people who take prediction markets seriously and we already have some prediction markets.
Specifically, I predict that if there were an absolutely perfect prediction market for “Vaccine X will be X% effective” and the resulting prediction (in January of 2020) was mostly 98 to 99, the FDA would not behave any differently from what we observed with Pfizer or Moderna.
I am going to be pessimistic and guess that very little would change because this scenario does not include any change to the type of people who take prediction markets seriously and we already have some prediction markets.
Specifically, I predict that if there were an absolutely perfect prediction market for “Vaccine X will be X% effective” and the resulting prediction (in January of 2020) was mostly 98 to 99, the FDA would not behave any differently from what we observed with Pfizer or Moderna.
Predictions about when how much vaccine doses are available given certain actions could have helped us having enough vaccination doses.