One thing that Eliezer takes care to avoid doing is giving his actual numbers regarding the existential possibilities. And that is an extremely wise decision. Not everyone has fully internalised the idea behind Shut Up and Do The Impossible! Even if Eliezer believed that all of the work he and the SIAI may do will only improve our existential expectation by the kind of tiny amount you mention it would most likely still be the right choice to go ahead and do exactly what he is trying to do. But not everyone is that good at multiplication.
Nod. That makes more sense.
One thing that Eliezer takes care to avoid doing is giving his actual numbers regarding the existential possibilities. And that is an extremely wise decision. Not everyone has fully internalised the idea behind Shut Up and Do The Impossible! Even if Eliezer believed that all of the work he and the SIAI may do will only improve our existential expectation by the kind of tiny amount you mention it would most likely still be the right choice to go ahead and do exactly what he is trying to do. But not everyone is that good at multiplication.