This is extremely helpful. I understand (and understood) the P(A|B) = P(AB)/P(B) part of Bayes’ theorem. I did not, however, get the odds ratio part until this post prompted me to go through EY’s Bayes Theorem explanation. Thank you.
I am thinking through the implications at the moment, but (this is to everyone else, not you) don’t get your hopes up for me to deconvert.
So, you’ve recognized that the explicit basis for your faith is insufficient, but you believe that you will not deconvert. What does this tell you? (There are a number of possible things.)
So, you’ve recognized that the explicit basis for your faith is insufficient, but you believe that you will not deconvert.
Hold on, you’re jumping the gun a bit there; calcsam hasn’t said anything (yet?) to indicate that he agrees with the statement that “the explicit basis for [his] faith” is insufficient.
I interpreted calcsam’s comment as indicating that an acknowledgement that the numbers above are indeed “implausibly high”. You are correct that I may have misinterpreted!
This is extremely helpful. I understand (and understood) the P(A|B) = P(AB)/P(B) part of Bayes’ theorem. I did not, however, get the odds ratio part until this post prompted me to go through EY’s Bayes Theorem explanation. Thank you.
I am thinking through the implications at the moment, but (this is to everyone else, not you) don’t get your hopes up for me to deconvert.
So, you’ve recognized that the explicit basis for your faith is insufficient, but you believe that you will not deconvert. What does this tell you? (There are a number of possible things.)
Hold on, you’re jumping the gun a bit there; calcsam hasn’t said anything (yet?) to indicate that he agrees with the statement that “the explicit basis for [his] faith” is insufficient.
I interpreted calcsam’s comment as indicating that an acknowledgement that the numbers above are indeed “implausibly high”. You are correct that I may have misinterpreted!
It’s worth getting the log-odds-ratio version of the theory down; only then does the phrase “weight of evidence” really start to make sense.
I don’t have my hopes up because you are yet to answer what is by far the most important question.