The problem is that you haven’t clearly outlined any particular reason to think that MatthewBaker is wrong, or even defined your terms unambiguously. Now, with the benefit of what your previous posts imply there’s a couple of plausible ways I can untangle this dispute, of which the most charitable is probably that MatthewBaker meant profession of Mormonism and you meant its literal truth (a common semantic failure mode in discussion between monotheists and nontheists), but I don’t know that for sure. Let’s be clear about what we’re accepting as axioms and what we’re disputing, and about the chains of reasoning we used to get there. Otherwise we’re just going to end up talking past each other—something that, if the comments below mine are anything to go by, we’ve done enough of already.
Given the predicate that “Toni” follows the tenets of Mormonism, those including but not limited to:
Faith in the Lord Jesus Christ
Repentance of sins committed upon this earth
Submission to the ordinances of the gospel, e.g. baptism, confirmation of the Holy Ghost;
Given also the predicate that the teachings of Mormonism are true, those including but not limited to:
The laws of Justice and Mercy
The atonement of Christ
The upcoming Judgement of souls:
I conclude with probability 1 that “Toni” will achieve happiness during the period of her existence postdating (or the analogous term, should time prove to be merely a terrestrial construct) the Judgement foretold, by the following reasoning:
We have been promised, by the laws of Justice and Mercy, that through the atonement of Christ, and by obedience to the laws and ordinances of the gospel, we may achieve “salvation” and eternal happiness.
According to the teachings of Mormonism (which are had in our givens), the above promise is accurate.
“Toni”, according to our givens, has through her life obeyed the laws and ordinances of the gospel.
Therefore, insofar as our givens are accurate, “Toni” will achieve eternal happiness. QED.
And; Thank you both for clarifying a post i was still rolling around my thoughts and having trouble understanding.
According to Aumann’s Agreement Theorem we may not share all the same priors but i appreciate that we can try to understand where the differences in our common knowledge lie.
..… I’m afraid I don’t see your point. I asserted that P(~ happiness in the next life | Mormonism) = 0; I didn’t assert that P(Mormonism) = 1. That would be folly. I also didn’t make any assertion about P(Mormonism | happiness in the next life).
I believe that P(Mormonism) is substantially less than 1 and probably closer to 1/42x10^6) and you believe that its somewhere above .1. My assertion is that if happiness in the next life isn’t completely dependent on Mormanism and that it could be dependent on other things Mormanism prevents many from seeking like cryonics. Then we should form a ratio of how much happiness in the next life matters to you as much as happiness in this life. If we share the prior that the next life is much longer and therefore more important then this life, then we should both seek to maximize our chances of happiness in the next life to the extent that it doesn’t negatively affect our happiness in this life.
Depending on how big or small our ratio is a rational agent would be driven towards Mormanism to the extent he thinks it is probable. I dont think its very probable at all but that’s influenced by the fact it would negatively affect my happiness in this life from what ive seen. You think its much more probable but it seems to also be a positive influence on you in this life.
Therefore do you accept the idea that you cannot look at the archeological evidence towards Mormanism fully rationally any more than i could because we are both predisposed by our happiness in this life and the other ratio of happiness in the next life? From my perspective the DNA evidence clearly supports the fact that the Book of Morman is a fictional tale so if we intend to disagree about it we should figure out which of our priors are different so we dont dance around it all day like we did with the previous issue of happiness in the next life.
Ooooh. *twitch* Please, let me correct your spelling: “Mormonism”. Now then.
That’s an interesting question, there. Let me see if I’ve got it phrased correctly:
“Each person who seeks to judge P(Mormonism) will have a strong bias in one direction, based upon their projection of the effect adherence to Mormonism would have on their happiness during this life.”
Is this the proposition I’m being asked to agree to?
EDIT: The above seems to boil down to: “We will assign a level of credence to P(“Mormonism”) directly proportional to the degree to which we believe that it would be beneficial for us to believe “Mormonism”.” Sounds familiar. So… this may be naive of me, but it seems to me that we’re both succumbing to this bias… o_o; Which is a Problem.
Interesting, I hadn’t connected that article to my idea but it definitely describes that bias pretty effectively. I wonder how Eliezer solved the direct effects rather than the Bayesian effects of this bias.
I desire to believe that a benevolent being exists outside of our simulation that will protect my consciousness when i die. However, i think its much more unlikely than
And to my benefit socially i will continue to believe that until more evidence is revealed to me by this upcoming return of our savior you think is going to happen, and i respect your right to follow the LDS doctrine even if i dont share your beliefs. I just dont respect a lot of other Mormons who believe as you do without the same scrutiny towards religion and politics.
I think that’s an entirely honorable and right way of thinking, and I respect you for it… which is why, given my belief system already in place, I earnestly hope (and am researching to see if this hope is consistent with my beliefs, otherwise I have some serious thinking to do about what I need to believe!) that all you who are looking for more evidence will have the chance to act on it when it’s given in the future. :3
But thank you for affording me the respect of recognizing my capability and predilection for rational thought.
The problem is that you haven’t clearly outlined any particular reason to think that MatthewBaker is wrong, or even defined your terms unambiguously. Now, with the benefit of what your previous posts imply there’s a couple of plausible ways I can untangle this dispute, of which the most charitable is probably that MatthewBaker meant profession of Mormonism and you meant its literal truth (a common semantic failure mode in discussion between monotheists and nontheists), but I don’t know that for sure. Let’s be clear about what we’re accepting as axioms and what we’re disputing, and about the chains of reasoning we used to get there. Otherwise we’re just going to end up talking past each other—something that, if the comments below mine are anything to go by, we’ve done enough of already.
Ah, words, words. :3 Very well.
Given the predicate that “Toni” follows the tenets of Mormonism, those including but not limited to:
Faith in the Lord Jesus Christ
Repentance of sins committed upon this earth
Submission to the ordinances of the gospel, e.g. baptism, confirmation of the Holy Ghost;
Given also the predicate that the teachings of Mormonism are true, those including but not limited to:
The laws of Justice and Mercy
The atonement of Christ
The upcoming Judgement of souls:
I conclude with probability 1 that “Toni” will achieve happiness during the period of her existence postdating (or the analogous term, should time prove to be merely a terrestrial construct) the Judgement foretold, by the following reasoning:
We have been promised, by the laws of Justice and Mercy, that through the atonement of Christ, and by obedience to the laws and ordinances of the gospel, we may achieve “salvation” and eternal happiness.
According to the teachings of Mormonism (which are had in our givens), the above promise is accurate.
“Toni”, according to our givens, has through her life obeyed the laws and ordinances of the gospel.
Therefore, insofar as our givens are accurate, “Toni” will achieve eternal happiness. QED.
Thank you. That’s much clearer.
No; thank you for reminding me of a basic lesson of rational argument: agree beforehand on your terms.
And; Thank you both for clarifying a post i was still rolling around my thoughts and having trouble understanding. According to Aumann’s Agreement Theorem we may not share all the same priors but i appreciate that we can try to understand where the differences in our common knowledge lie.
So according to what seems to be our common knowledge and
I believe that P(Mormonism) is substantially less than 1 and probably closer to 1/42x10^6) and you believe that its somewhere above .1. My assertion is that if happiness in the next life isn’t completely dependent on Mormanism and that it could be dependent on other things Mormanism prevents many from seeking like cryonics. Then we should form a ratio of how much happiness in the next life matters to you as much as happiness in this life. If we share the prior that the next life is much longer and therefore more important then this life, then we should both seek to maximize our chances of happiness in the next life to the extent that it doesn’t negatively affect our happiness in this life.
Depending on how big or small our ratio is a rational agent would be driven towards Mormanism to the extent he thinks it is probable. I dont think its very probable at all but that’s influenced by the fact it would negatively affect my happiness in this life from what ive seen. You think its much more probable but it seems to also be a positive influence on you in this life.
Therefore do you accept the idea that you cannot look at the archeological evidence towards Mormanism fully rationally any more than i could because we are both predisposed by our happiness in this life and the other ratio of happiness in the next life? From my perspective the DNA evidence clearly supports the fact that the Book of Morman is a fictional tale so if we intend to disagree about it we should figure out which of our priors are different so we dont dance around it all day like we did with the previous issue of happiness in the next life.
Ooooh. *twitch* Please, let me correct your spelling: “Mormonism”. Now then.
That’s an interesting question, there. Let me see if I’ve got it phrased correctly:
“Each person who seeks to judge P(Mormonism) will have a strong bias in one direction, based upon their projection of the effect adherence to Mormonism would have on their happiness during this life.”
Is this the proposition I’m being asked to agree to?
EDIT: The above seems to boil down to: “We will assign a level of credence to P(“Mormonism”) directly proportional to the degree to which we believe that it would be beneficial for us to believe “Mormonism”.” Sounds familiar. So… this may be naive of me, but it seems to me that we’re both succumbing to this bias… o_o; Which is a Problem.
Interesting, I hadn’t connected that article to my idea but it definitely describes that bias pretty effectively. I wonder how Eliezer solved the direct effects rather than the Bayesian effects of this bias.
Ha! We should ask him. :P
I will if i see him when i visit the institute when i go back to school :)
You let me know how that turns out. In the meantime, I’ll try to ponder a way out of the puzzle.
Well really, the solution is to adopt the Litany of Tarski. But I suppose that’s easier said than done...
I desire to believe that a benevolent being exists outside of our simulation that will protect my consciousness when i die. However, i think its much more unlikely than
And to my benefit socially i will continue to believe that until more evidence is revealed to me by this upcoming return of our savior you think is going to happen, and i respect your right to follow the LDS doctrine even if i dont share your beliefs. I just dont respect a lot of other Mormons who believe as you do without the same scrutiny towards religion and politics.
I think that’s an entirely honorable and right way of thinking, and I respect you for it… which is why, given my belief system already in place, I earnestly hope (and am researching to see if this hope is consistent with my beliefs, otherwise I have some serious thinking to do about what I need to believe!) that all you who are looking for more evidence will have the chance to act on it when it’s given in the future. :3
But thank you for affording me the respect of recognizing my capability and predilection for rational thought.