Consider cross-posting this question to the EA Forum; discussion there is more focused on giving, so you might get a broader set of answers.
Another frame around this question: “How can one go about evaluating the impact of a year’s worth of ~$500 donations?” If you’re trying to get leverage with small donations, you might expect a VC-like set of returns, where you can’t detect much impact from most donations but occasionally see a case of really obvious impact. If you spend an entire year making, say, a dozen such donations, and none of them make a really obvious impact, this is a sign that you either aren’t having much impact or don’t have a good way to measure it (in either case, it’s good to rethink your giving strategy).
You could also try making predictions—“I predict that X will happen if I give/don’t give”—and then following up a few months later. What you learn will depend on what you predict, but you’ll at least be able to learn more about whether your donations are doing what you expect them to do.
Consider cross-posting this question to the EA Forum; discussion there is more focused on giving, so you might get a broader set of answers.
Another frame around this question: “How can one go about evaluating the impact of a year’s worth of ~$500 donations?” If you’re trying to get leverage with small donations, you might expect a VC-like set of returns, where you can’t detect much impact from most donations but occasionally see a case of really obvious impact. If you spend an entire year making, say, a dozen such donations, and none of them make a really obvious impact, this is a sign that you either aren’t having much impact or don’t have a good way to measure it (in either case, it’s good to rethink your giving strategy).
You could also try making predictions—“I predict that X will happen if I give/don’t give”—and then following up a few months later. What you learn will depend on what you predict, but you’ll at least be able to learn more about whether your donations are doing what you expect them to do.