One correct probability estimate of what? You are tacitly assuming that someone has mapped the ideaspace and presented you with a tidy menu of options. But no-one could have converged on relativity before Einstein because he hadn’t thought of it yet. Guessing bad, hypothesing good.
One correct probability estimate of what? You are tacitly assuming that someone has mapped the ideaspace and presented you with a tidy menu of options. But no-one could have converged on relativity before Einstein because he hadn’t thought of it yet. Guessing bad, hypothesing good.
So...no.