I personally do not consider (1) to have been “proved to be probably infeasible”. MIRI had, like, a dozen people working on it for a decade, which just isn’t that much in the scheme of things. And even then, most of those people were not working directly on the core problems for most of that time. The evidence-of-hardness-from-people-trying-and-failing for alignment is not even remotely in the league of, say, P vs NP.
(The evidence-of-hardness-from-people-trying-and-failing is enough that the first clever idea any given person has won’t work, though. Or the fifth idea. Also, just counting MIRI’s research understates the difficulty somewhat, since lots of people worked on various aspects of agent foudations over the past century.)
Certainly I expect that (1) is orders of magnitude easier than (2).
I personally do not consider (1) to have been “proved to be probably infeasible”. MIRI had, like, a dozen people working on it for a decade, which just isn’t that much in the scheme of things. And even then, most of those people were not working directly on the core problems for most of that time. The evidence-of-hardness-from-people-trying-and-failing for alignment is not even remotely in the league of, say, P vs NP.
(The evidence-of-hardness-from-people-trying-and-failing is enough that the first clever idea any given person has won’t work, though. Or the fifth idea. Also, just counting MIRI’s research understates the difficulty somewhat, since lots of people worked on various aspects of agent foudations over the past century.)
Certainly I expect that (1) is orders of magnitude easier than (2).